Grab Holdings (GRAB) Surges 8.5% on Strong Technical Indicators Extending 7-Day Winning Streak to 21.95%

Grab Holdings (GRAB) has surged 8.50% in the most recent session, extending its winning streak to seven consecutive days with a cumulative gain of 21.95%. This sharp upward momentum suggests strong short-term buying pressure, with the price breaking above recent resistance levels and establishing a new high of $6.03. Key support levels appear to be forming around $4.80–$4.90, where the stock has historically found buyers during pullbacks, while critical resistance zones are now redefined near $5.50 and $5.80.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action features a series of bullish candlestick patterns, including a strong harami reversal and a bullish engulfing pattern during the breakout from the $5.00–$5.20 range. These patterns indicate a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Additionally, the formation of a rising wedge from mid-August to late September suggests continuation of the uptrend, with the recent breakout confirming the pattern’s validity. Key support at $4.80 and resistance at $6.03–$6.20 (projected by the wedge’s upper boundary) should be monitored for potential confluence with other indicators.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated at approximately $5.15) has crossed above the 100-day ($5.05) and 200-day ($4.95) moving averages, forming a golden cross that signals a medium-term bullish trend. The current price of $6.03 sits significantly above all three moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, the 200-day MA may act as a dynamic support zone if the price faces near-term consolidation.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a positive divergence from late August to early September, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (a golden cross) in mid-September. This aligns with the stock’s sharp rally. The KDJ oscillator currently shows the J-line ($6.20) rising above the K ($6.05) and D ($5.95) lines, indicating overbought conditions and potential exhaustion of the rally. A bearish divergence in the KDJ is possible if the J-line peaks above 80 while the price continues to rise, which could signal a near-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded as the price has approached the upper Bollinger Band ($6.03), suggesting a potential overbought condition. The bands were previously contracting in early September, indicating a period of low volatility before the breakout. If the price closes below the middle band ($5.50), it could signal a temporary pullback, but the upper band’s role as a psychological barrier may delay such a move.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged during the recent rally, with the most recent session seeing 110.3 million shares traded—well above the 30-day average of 30–40 million. This volume validates the strength of the upward move. However, if volume declines while the price continues to rise, it could indicate weakening momentum. Conversely, a spike in volume during a pullback would confirm the sustainability of the uptrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has reached 72, entering overbought territory. While this often precedes a correction, the RSI has remained above 50 for most of September, suggesting the uptrend remains intact. A drop below 50 would indicate a shift in momentum, but a divergence between the RSI and price (e.g., RSI peaking while the price continues to rise) could signal an impending reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent $4.80–$6.03 move, the 23.6% ($5.62) and 38.2% ($5.38) retracement levels are now potential resistance-turned-support zones. If the price consolidates around $5.62, it could serve as a critical inflection point for the trend. The 61.8% level ($4.95) remains a key support area, where a breakdown could trigger a retest of the $4.80–$4.90 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying GRAB on a MACD golden cross and holding for five days yielded a -2.58% return, underperforming the benchmark by 9.46%. This poor performance, coupled with a negative CAGR of -3.73% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.15, highlights the strategy’s inefficacy in this context. The maximum drawdown of 0.00% suggests no meaningful risk-reward balance, likely due to the stock’s high volatility and overbought conditions during the test period. To improve outcomes, integrating Fibonacci retracement levels or RSI divergence signals with the MACD could refine entry and exit points. Additionally, extending the holding period beyond five days might align better with the stock’s medium-term bullish trend as indicated by moving averages and volume patterns.