Google Cloud's 2026 Growth Potential Amid Slowing Overall EPS

In the shadow of Alphabet's near-term earnings moderation, Google Cloud stands out as a beacon of long-term potential. While investors may be wary of the company's slowing EPS growth, a closer look at the interplay between AI-driven backlog expansion, on-demand revenue dynamics, and strategic market diversification reveals a compelling case for re-rating GOOGL shares. Morgan Stanley's bold 50%+ growth projections for 2026 underscore this narrative, painting a picture of a business poised to outperform despite macroeconomic headwinds.

The Backlog-Driven Growth Engine

Morgan Stanley's updated backlog model suggests that Google Cloud could achieve over 50% revenue growth in 2026 if it adds $50 billion in net backlog and sees a 15% expansion in its on-demand business according to the model. Even under conservative assumptions-25% on-demand growth and a $20 billion backlog increase-the firm's projections remain intact according to analysis. This resilience stems from Google Cloud's historical reliance on backlog, which accounts for 45-50% of its revenue. The firm's recent $155 billion cloud backlog according to market analysis provides a robust foundation for incremental revenue, particularly as new contracts lock in long-term value.

The role of AI in accelerating this backlog growth is critical. According to a report by Google Cloud, AI agents are automating complex workflows and enhancing productivity, driving demand for enterprise solutions as the report shows. For instance, the Agent2Agent (A2A) protocol, which integrates with platforms like Salesforce, is enabling seamless cross-platform automation, a feature that enterprises are increasingly adopting to optimize operations according to Google Cloud's findings. This technological edge is translating into higher contract values and longer-term commitments, fueling backlog accumulation.

On-Demand Revenue and AI's Scalability

While backlog provides a stable revenue stream, Google Cloud's on-demand business-accounting for the remaining 50-55% of revenue-has been a wildcard. Historically, this segment has grown rapidly, driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure. In Q3 2025, Google Cloud's revenue surged 34% year-over-year to $15.1 billion, with AI tools like Gemini and Vertex AI leading the charge according to Reuters. Analysts project that the on-demand segment will continue expanding at a 13% compound annual growth rate over the next five years as market research indicates, a trajectory bolstered by Alphabet's $93 billion capital expenditure (CapEx) in 2025, much of which is allocated to AI-specific hardware like TPUs and GPUs according to Global Data Center Hub.

The scalability of AI-driven on-demand services is a key differentiator. Unlike traditional cloud infrastructure, which requires upfront investments, AI-as-a-service models allow enterprises to scale usage dynamically. This flexibility is particularly attractive in a post-pandemic economy where cost efficiency remains paramount. As stated by Sundar Pichai, Google Cloud is now challenging YouTube as Alphabet's second-largest cash generator according to Reuters, a testament to the segment's ability to monetize AI's productivity gains.

Diversification and Market Expansion: A New Frontier

Google Cloud's growth is not confined to its core markets. Strategic investments in AI infrastructure and partnerships are unlocking new revenue streams. For example, the company's collaboration with Anthropic-allowing the latter to use up to one million Google TPUs-highlights its role as a silicon supplier for third-party AI developers according to financial reports. This diversification reduces reliance on in-house AI applications and taps into the broader AI ecosystem, a market projected to grow into a $1.1 trillion digital advertising sector according to market analysis.

Geographically, Google Cloud is expanding into high-growth regions like India, where Gemini adoption has exceeded 100 million monthly users according to market data. This expansion is supported by infrastructure projects, including new data-center campuses and fiber networks, which position the company to capture market share in Asia-Pacific and Latin America according to Global Data Center Hub. Such moves are critical in a competitive landscape where AWS and Microsoft Azure dominate, but where AI-driven differentiation can create moats.

Long-Term Catalysts: Quantum Computing and Renewable Energy

Beyond AI, Google Cloud's long-term outperformance is underpinned by its investments in quantum computing and sustainability. The Willow quantum chip, which achieved 13,000 times the speed of leading supercomputers according to technical reports, signals Alphabet's commitment to post-classical computing. While commercial applications are years away, this technological depth positions Google Cloud as a leader in next-generation workloads.

Simultaneously, Alphabet's renewable energy commitments-spanning 120 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030-align with enterprise demand for low-carbon cloud solutions according to corporate disclosures. As regulatory pressures mount, Google Cloud's green infrastructure could become a competitive advantage, attracting environmentally conscious clients and reducing operational costs.

Conclusion: Re-Rating the Stock

While Alphabet's overall EPS growth may slow in the near term, the underlying dynamics of Google Cloud's business model suggest a re-rating is warranted. Morgan Stanley's 50%+ growth projections for 2026, supported by AI-driven backlog and on-demand expansion, highlight a company that is not just surviving but thriving in the AI era. With a $155 billion backlog, aggressive CapEx, and a diversified AI ecosystem, Google Cloud is positioned to outperform peers and deliver long-term value to shareholders. For investors willing to look beyond quarterly earnings, the case for GOOGL is as compelling as it is timely.