Golem/Bitcoin Market Overview – 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• Price opened at 1.80e-06 and ranged between 1.69e-06 and 2.04e-06.
• A strong bearish correction followed a mid-day spike.
• Volume surged to 121,286 at 18:45 ET, followed by fading momentum.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early, leading to a pullback.
• Bollinger Bands highlight a recent volatility expansion followed by contraction.

Golem/Bitcoin (GLMBTC) opened at 1.80e-06 on 2025-11-04 and closed at 1.72e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 2.04e-06 to a low of 1.69e-06, reflecting a volatile session. Total traded volume reached 780,216, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $1,352 (assuming $40,000 BTC price). The price action indicates a failed bullish breakout followed by a consolidation phase.

The structure of the candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation forming around 18:00 ET, where a strong bullish candle was followed by a larger bearish candle. This pattern is often seen as a potential reversal signal. Key support levels can be identified around 1.75e-06 and 1.70e-06, with resistance at 1.80e-06 and 1.85e-06. The price appears to be consolidating within a descending triangle pattern, suggesting a possible continuation lower.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover as of late evening, reinforcing the downward bias. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is bearish relative to the 200-period MA, signaling a medium-term downtrend. The MACD histogram turned negative after a mid-day divergence, while the RSI crossed into oversold territory at 1.69e-06. These readings suggest a temporary pause in the bearish momentum but caution that further downward movement could be expected if support breaks.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early part of the day but have since narrowed, indicating a potential low-volatility period. Price is currently near the lower band of the bands, which may suggest a test of psychological support at 1.70e-06. If that level holds, a rebound could follow; however, a breakdown below could trigger further selling pressure.

Volume activity surged dramatically at 18:45 ET with over 121,000 contracts traded, but faded significantly in the hours following. This suggests a one-sided bearish move rather than broad market participation. Turnover patterns reflect this uneven volume, with the most significant portion of notional value traded during the 18:45 ET candle. The divergence between volume and price suggests a weakening of the bearish momentum, though not enough to reverse the current trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 2.04e-06 to 1.69e-06 swing indicate key levels at 1.93e-06 (38.2%) and 1.82e-06 (61.8%). The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before retreating, indicating strong resistance. These levels could act as potential areas for buyers if a bullish reversal materializes in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest described involves detecting daily Bearish Engulfing patterns in the GLMBTC pair and executing a “sell at close” strategy. This aligns closely with the pattern observed on 2025-11-04, where a large bearish candle engulfed the preceding bullish candle. Using historical data from 2022-01-01 to the present, the strategy would identify such patterns, trigger a sell signal at the close of the pattern day, and track the post-signal returns. This approach could be enhanced by incorporating RSI and MACD for confirmation, as seen in the recent 24-hour period. A backtest would provide insights into the average return, best holding horizon, and maximum drawdown for this strategy, offering a clearer view of its viability for long-term use.