Goldman Sachs y Deutsche Bank alertan sobre fin del "verano de Ricitos de Oro" en los mercados financieros

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG predict a challenging return to market operations after the "Goldilocks summer" as investors face weak US data, trade tensions, and President Donald Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve. The CBOE VIX, a key market volatility indicator, is near its lowest level of the year, while the dollar has recovered from a three-year low in July.

As the summer market calm, often referred to as the "Goldilocks summer," comes to an end, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG are forecasting a challenging return to market operations for investors. The summer period was marked by a buoyant stock market, driven largely by strong earnings from major US tech companies, rather than fundamental optimism about the broader economy [1].

Goldman Sachs strategists, including Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research, anticipate that the return to market activity will be difficult. Mueller-Glissmann noted that the market's "Goldilocks momentum" may not be sustainable, citing concerns about the US economy and labor markets [1].

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos, global head of FX research, has expressed concern about the Fed's independence. President Donald Trump's latest moves, including the potential ousting of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, have raised concerns about the central bank's ability to maintain independence and implement aggressive interest rate cuts. The yield on 30-year bonds rose significantly in response to these developments, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell [1].

The CBOE VIX index, a key measure of market volatility, is currently near its lowest levels of the year, indicating a calm market. However, traders are aware that this calm may not last. The dollar, which had hit a three-year low in July, has since recovered but remains a point of interest for market participants [1].

In Europe, France's political instability, as evidenced by the recent call for a confidence vote, has also added to market uncertainty. Local stocks tumbled in response to concerns about a potential government collapse, while euro volatility spiked [1].

Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching upcoming data releases, particularly the US payrolls report scheduled for next week. This report could signal the end of the summer market doldrums [1].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/goldman-deutsche-bank-wave-goodbye-to-summer-calm-in-markets