Goldman Sachs' Bold $4,900 Gold Forecast for 2026: Is Now the Time to Buy?

The gold market is entering a pivotal phase as major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan, increasingly position gold as a cornerstone of a structural bull case. With central banks accelerating their gold purchases, ETF inflows surging, and macroeconomic tailwinds aligning, the question for investors is no longer if gold will rise-but how much it might rise. Goldman Sachs' recent forecast of $4,900 per troy ounce by December 2026 has ignited debate, but the underlying drivers suggest this bold target may be more than speculative hype.

Central Bank Demand: A Decade of Resurgence

Central banks have emerged as the most powerful force reshaping gold's demand landscape. From 2023 to 2025, global central banks have purchased over 3,200 tonnes of gold, with 2025 alone seeing 634 tonnes added in the first ten months. This represents a seismic shift from historical norms: annual purchases between 2014 and 2016 averaged just 525 tonnes, while the 2023–2025 period has already exceeded that total. Emerging markets are leading the charge. The National Bank of Poland, for instance, added over 83 tonnes in 2025 alone, while China, India, and Kazakhstan continue to diversify their reserves away from dollar-dominated assets.

According to the World Gold Council's 2025 survey, 95% of surveyed central banks anticipate increased global gold holdings in 2026, with 43% planning to expand their own reserves. This trend reflects a broader strategy to hedge against geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and the erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar. As one analyst notes, "Gold is no longer a niche asset-it's a strategic necessity for central banks".

ETF Flows and Structural Bull Trends

Gold's appeal extends beyond central banks. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have become a critical conduit for retail and institutional demand. Goldman Sachs attributes its $4,900 forecast to "strong ETF inflows", a trend corroborated by JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank. JPMorgan projects gold will average $3,675/oz by Q4 2025 and climb toward $4,000 by mid-2026, while Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 target to $4,450/oz from $4,000. These forecasts hinge on gold's role as a safe-haven asset amid global debt concerns, elevated stock-bond correlations, and the Federal Reserve's anticipated easing cycle.

The structural bull case is further reinforced by gold's inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar. As the dollar weakens-driven by persistent fiscal deficits and Fed rate cuts-gold's appeal as a hedge against devaluation intensifies. Goldman Sachs explicitly ties its forecast to this dynamic, noting that "a weaker dollar and central bank buying are the twin engines of gold's ascent".

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Fed Easing and Global Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is a linchpin for gold's 2026 outlook. With inflationary pressures easing and the Fed expected to cut rates in 2026, the opportunity cost of holding gold-historically a non-yielding asset-diminishes. Deutsche Bank's $4,450/oz forecast explicitly factors in "persistent central bank demand" and "Fed easing", while JPMorgan highlights the "convergence of macroeconomic tailwinds".

Beyond U.S. policy, global uncertainties-ranging from China's property sector challenges to geopolitical tensions-further bolster gold's case. The World Gold Council's "Reflation Return" scenario, which posits a potential 20% drop in gold prices under a Trump-era policy-driven dollar rebound, remains a bearish outlier. However, the consensus among major banks suggests that structural demand and macroeconomic trends will outweigh such risks.

Is Now the Time to Buy?

For investors, the calculus is clear: gold's structural demand is being driven by forces that are both durable and irreversible. Central banks are reshaping their portfolios, ETFs are democratizing access to gold, and macroeconomic conditions are aligning to support higher prices. Goldman Sachs' $4,900 forecast may seem ambitious, but it is grounded in a reality where gold's role as a hedge against dollar devaluation and systemic risk is gaining institutional credibility.

The question is not whether gold will rise-it is whether investors can position themselves before the next leg of the rally. With central banks expected to purchase 70–80 tonnes annually in 2025 and 2026, and ETF inflows showing no signs of abating, the window to capitalize on gold's bull cycle is narrowing. For those who recognize the confluence of structural demand and macroeconomic tailwinds, the answer may already be clear.