Goldman: Raises Xiaomi's target price to HK$27.5, reiterates "buy" rating

Goldman published a report, raising the target price of Xiaomi (01810) by 11.33% to HK$27.5 from HK$24.7, and reiterating the "buy" investment rating. Goldman said that it saw Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" strategy centered on users continued to achieve early success in China and globally. Specifically, the firm 1) proposed an upgrade on the first factory's capacity, expecting the delivery volume of SU7 to exceed 225,000 units annually in 2025 and beyond; 2) introduced its view on SU7 Ultra (GSe4k with an average price of Rmb800,000 in 2025, accounting for 5% of electric vehicle revenue), whose prototype car will debut at the Nurburgring track in October; 3) raised its potential estimate on Xiaomi's second electric vehicle, earlier than consensus' delivery (GSe40k/210k units in 2025/26E, or 15%/44% of electric vehicle revenue in 2025/26E). Goldman raised its revenue forecast for Xiaomi in 2024-26 by 0%/3%/8% under the higher EV production assumption; its current model is for deliveries of 120k/269k/473k in 2024-26. For the EV sector, the firm's consensus with VA in 2024 is largely in line, but 11%/34% higher than in 2025/26. In terms of profitability, the firm largely maintained Xiaomi's net profit in 2024-25 unchanged, raising it by 10% in 2026, with stronger operating leverage in the EV sector; its model is for core net profit of Rmb2.9bn/3.1bn/3.4bn in 2024-26.