Perspectiva estratégica de Gold ante recortes de tasas por parte de la Fed y la incertidumbre macro

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, marked the third reduction of the year and signaled a cautious pivot toward easing. This move, however, was not unanimous, with dissenting voices advocating for either larger cuts or maintaining rates, underscoring the Fed's internal debate over balancing inflation risks and labor market softness according to analysts. As the central bank adopts a "wait-and-see" approach to navigate macroeconomic uncertainties, gold's role as a barometer for monetary policy and risk sentiment remains critical.

The Fed's Easing Cycle: A Delicate Balancing Act

The Fed's December 2025 rate cut reflects its dual mandate of managing inflation and sustaining employment. While core PCE inflation remains elevated at 2.8%-partly driven by goods-price inflation linked to tariffs-the FOMC projects a gradual decline to 2.5% in 2026 and stabilization at 2.1% by 2027. Simultaneously, economic growth forecasts have been upgraded, with 1.7% expected in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, supported by resilient consumer spending and a stable labor market.

However, the Fed's forward guidance remains ambiguous. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent approach, acknowledging risks to both growth and inflation. This uncertainty has left markets pricing in approximately 57 basis points of rate cuts by December 2026, with the median projection suggesting one additional cut in 2026, bringing the terminal rate to 3.125% according to market analysis. Such ambiguity has created a mixed environment for gold, which has struggled to break out of a $4,230-per-ounce trading range amid conflicting signals about the dollar's strength and inflation's trajectory as market data shows.

Gold as a Macro Barometer: Technical and Fundamental Drivers

Gold's performance in 2025 has been shaped by its dual role as an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. The U.S. dollar's mixed direction-pressured by geopolitical tensions but supported by the Fed's hawkish undertones-has kept gold in a consolidation phase. Yet, technical indicators suggest potential for a breakout if the Fed signals more aggressive easing. Analysts note that a sustained close above $4,250 could trigger a retest of $4,300, with further upside toward $4,500 if rate cuts accelerate and the dollar weakens.

Fundamentally, gold's appeal is bolstered by macro uncertainties. Rising geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in key trade corridors and energy markets, have heightened demand for safe assets. Additionally, the Fed's plan to purchase shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain ample bank reserves could indirectly support gold by signaling accommodative monetary conditions.

Strategic Implications for Investors

For investors, the interplay between the Fed's easing cycle and gold's price action presents both opportunities and risks. A more aggressive rate-cutting path-driven by persistent inflation moderation or a sharper slowdown-could catalyze a rally in gold, particularly if the dollar weakens further. Conversely, a premature tightening bias or a faster-than-expected inflation peak might cap gold's upside.

Market participants should closely monitor the Fed's March 2026 meeting, where updated economic projections and inflation forecasts will likely shape the trajectory of the easing cycle. In the interim, positioning in gold derivatives and dollar-hedged gold ETFs could offer asymmetric upside potential while mitigating currency risk.

Conclusion

The Fed's easing cycle remains a pivotal factor in gold's strategic outlook. While the central bank's cautious stance has limited gold's momentum, the combination of macro uncertainties, inflationary tailwinds, and potential dollar weakness positions gold as a compelling hedge for 2026. Investors who anticipate a more aggressive Fed pivot toward easing may find value in tactical allocations to gold, particularly as the market grapples with the delicate balance between growth resilience and inflation moderation.