El oro, la plata y las acciones corren el riesgo de retroceder en 2026

Gold, Silver, and Equities Face Correction Risk in 2026

Gold, silver, and equities face a risk of correction in 2026 after a sharp rally in 2025. Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that gold, silver, copper, and stocks are showing signs of overheating. These trends are often followed by price corrections as increased supply and reduced demand come into play.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Gold is expected to stay elevated in 2026 if U.S. interest rates continue to fall and central bank demand remains strong. Despite gains in 2025, analysts suggest there is still room for further appreciation, particularly if the macroeconomic environment remains supportive.

Silver and copper also show strong fundamentals. Silver ended 2025 at a record high of $72.02, while copper benefited from industrial demand and supply constraints. However, both metals may experience volatility due to leverage and market positioning according to market analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

Gold and silver surged in 2025 due to several factors. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker U.S. dollar supported demand. Central banks and ETF inflows also played a significant role. However, these same factors now raise concerns about overheating and potential corrections.

Gold closed 2025 at around $4,326.55 an ounce, up 65% for the year. This rally was driven by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and safe-haven demand. While fundamentals remain strong, the speed and magnitude of the rally are viewed as potential warning signs for 2026.

How Did Markets React?

The start of 2026 saw renewed interest in gold and silver. Spot gold rose 1.7% to $4,386.99 per ounce, while silver advanced 4.5% to $74.43 per ounce. These gains were supported by geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Physical demand also increased in key markets like India and China.

Copper prices also showed resilience. The metal ended 2025 near $5.6787 per pound, up 36% year-over-year. Demand from electrification and green energy projects, along with supply disruptions, kept copper prices elevated according to industry reports.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring key technical levels for gold. A break above $4,550 to $4,600 could lead to a move toward $5,050 in risk-driven scenarios. On the downside, a sustained drop below $4,450 could trigger a correction toward $4,000 to $4,100 according to technical analysis.

Market positioning and leverage are also important factors. CME Group increased performance bond requirements for metal futures in late 2025. This change lifted the cash traders must post to maintain positions, increasing the risk of sharp swings in prices.

Investors are also watching central bank activity and ETF flows. Continued central bank purchases and ETF inflows will support gold and silver in 2026. However, any significant reduction in these flows could lead to a reevaluation of prices.

The U.S. stock market is another area of concern. Despite a strong 2025, strategists remain optimistic for another rally in 2026. However, risks such as a potential AI bubble or unexpected economic shocks could disrupt this trend.

Overall, the market remains focused on the interplay between policy, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will play a crucial role in determining the direction of gold, silver, and equities in 2026 according to market analysis.