Oro y Plata en 2026: La Tesis de Reajuste Estructural vs. La Realidad Técnica

The 2025 rally in gold was not a fleeting market whim. It was a powerful structural re-rating, a fundamental reassessment of the metal's role in a world of escalating uncertainty. The scale of the move is staggering: the price surged about 65% this year, hitting an all-time high of around $4,560 per troy ounce. This performance far outpaced virtually all other risk assets, marking a decisive shift in investor behavior.

This wasn't a rally driven by broad market risk appetite. It was fueled by a confluence of non-cyclical, structural forces. Geopolitical turmoil, from the Middle East to Ukraine, created a persistent haven demand. Simultaneously, a clear trend of de-dollarization took hold, with central banks, particularly from nations like China, actively seeking to diversify away from U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. This was backed by record physical flows, with global ETFs owning physical gold adding assets for six straight months and amassing over half a trillion dollars in assets. The Federal Reserve's pivot to lower interest rates further enhanced gold's appeal, removing a traditional headwind.

The bottom line is that the 2025 surge was a re-rating of gold's intrinsic value, not a speculative bubble. It reflected a deep-seated shift in how institutions and savvy investors view the metal-not as a speculative play, but as a core, non-cyclical store of value and a hedge against systemic risks. The rally's pace, however, has now peaked. The all-time high and the subsequent technical pullback signal that the easy, momentum-driven phase is over. This sets the stage for 2026: a more volatile, demand-supported environment where the metal's price will be tested by the very structural forces that propelled it higher, but without the same relentless upward pressure.

The 2026 Inflection: Structural Floors vs. Cyclical Flows

The structural re-rating that powered gold to its peak is now the foundation for a new, more nuanced phase. The easy money from momentum is gone; the market is pricing in a more complex reality where structural support meets cyclical flows. For gold, this means a clear inflection point. Analysts see a path higher, but one that will be tested by the metal's own elevated price. Goldman Sachs, for instance, has set a 12-month price target of $4,900 for gold, with a wide range of $4,050 to $5,050. This outlook reflects a view that the core demand drivers-de-dollarization, geopolitical risk, and central bank buying-remain intact. Yet the target implies a significant slowdown from the 2025 rally, suggesting the structural floor is now much higher, and any pullback could be met with strategic accumulation.

Silver, by contrast, operates on a dual track. Its safe-haven appeal is undeniable, but it carries a distinct cyclical component that adds both risk and potential reward.

The metal's role as a key component in the renewable energy revolution and modern technology means its price will be increasingly tied to the health of those industries. This creates a vulnerability during periods of economic weakness, but also a powerful tailwind when industrial demand accelerates. The market is already pricing in this duality, with technical support now seen in the $69 to $70 per ounce range after a strong 2025 rally that saw intraday highs near $84.

This dual nature is most clearly illustrated by the long-term trend in the gold/silver ratio. The ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, has been in a persistent downtrend. This fractal pattern suggests silver is being re-rated relative to gold, often outperforming on a percentage basis during bull markets. The implication for 2026 is that while gold may trade in a high-valuation range supported by structural forces, silver has the potential to deliver more explosive percentage gains if industrial demand and market sentiment align. The bottom line is that the coming year will separate the structural hedges from the cyclical plays. Gold's path will be defined by the durability of its non-cyclical demand, while silver's will be a function of how well its industrial story can weather the broader economic cycle.

Valuation and Technical Scenarios

The structural thesis for precious metals now converges with concrete price levels and defined risk scenarios. For portfolio allocation, the key is to map the durable demand drivers onto specific technical zones that signal momentum or reversal.

Gold's immediate technical battleground is clear. After hitting an all-time high near $4,560, the metal has pulled back, with recent trading around $4,400. This establishes a critical support zone near $4,400. A sustained break below this level would challenge the bullish narrative, suggesting the recent consolidation is the start of a deeper correction. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the recent peak near $4,550 would be a powerful bullish signal. It would confirm that the structural re-rating has regained momentum, potentially opening the path toward the $4,050 to $5,050 range cited by Goldman Sachs, with the upper end of $5,000 as a tangible target.

Silver presents a more volatile but potentially rewarding setup. Its 2025 rally saw intraday highs near $84, but the metal is now consolidating. The initial technical support for the new year is seen in the $65 to $70 range. This zone is crucial; a failure to hold here could trigger a deeper correction toward the $60s. On the flip side, a sustained move above the $80 resistance barrier would signal a continuation of the bullish trend. A successful breakout could propel prices toward the $80 to $85 range, driven by both renewed haven demand and the industrial tailwinds from the energy transition.

The primary risk to this entire bull thesis is a sustained global economic recovery. Such a scenario would directly undermine the core structural drivers. A strong economic cycle typically reduces safe-haven demand for gold and strengthens the U.S. dollar, which historically moves inversely to precious metals. As noted, most analysts see the only way gold will fall next year is if global economic growth exceeds expectations. This is the fundamental vulnerability: the metals' re-rating is a bet on persistent uncertainty. If that uncertainty fades, the valuation premium built into the 2025 rally could unwind. For investors, this means the portfolio allocation must be calibrated to this binary risk-positioning for continued geopolitical and monetary support while having a clear exit if the cyclical recovery narrative takes hold.

Catalysts and Watchpoints for 2026

The structural thesis for precious metals now faces its ultimate test: real-world data. The coming months will be defined by a handful of forward-looking events and metrics that will confirm the durability of the demand drivers or reveal cracks in the narrative. For investors, these are the critical watchpoints that will dictate whether the 2025 re-rating is a lasting shift or a cyclical peak.

First and foremost is the flow of physical gold. The market must see continued strategic accumulation by central banks and institutional investors to validate the de-dollarization and haven demand story. While evidence points to powerful forces at work, the proof is in the data. Central banks are undertaking de-dollarization, but the pace and scale of their monthly gold reserve purchases will be the definitive signal. Any slowdown or reversal in these inflows would directly challenge the core structural thesis, suggesting the buying frenzy is losing steam.

Second, the relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index remains a key counterweight. A sustained rise in yields or a strong dollar would act as a direct headwind, as it historically does. The recent pullback in gold prices has been attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking. Watch for whether this dynamic reasserts itself. The market is also monitoring the dollar's "inflection point" amid shifting policy expectations. If the dollar strengthens decisively, it would pressure gold and silver, forcing a re-evaluation of the safe-haven premium.

Finally, geopolitical developments and U.S. fiscal policy will act as the ultimate stress test. Escalating tensions, as seen in early-2026 with frictions involving the U.S., Venezuela, and Greenland, have already reinforced risk aversion and haven demand. Any further deterioration in these relationships could reignite the safe-haven flows that powered the rally. Conversely, a de-escalation would test the metals' resilience. On the fiscal side, concerns about currency debasement and U.S. debt sustainability are a core driver. Watch for any significant changes in U.S. fiscal policy or debt issuance that could either amplify or alleviate these fears.

The bottom line is that 2026 will be a year of confirmation. The structural forces are clear, but their persistence must be measured against concrete data. The watchpoints are straightforward: central bank flows, the dollar/yield complex, and the geopolitical and fiscal landscape. These are the metrics that will separate the enduring re-rating from a temporary surge.