El rally acusado de oro: un caso estratégico para la exposición a 2026

The gold market is entering a pivotal phase, driven by a confluence of structural demand and macroeconomic tailwinds that position the metal as a cornerstone of 2026 investment strategies. Central banks, geopolitical tensions, and evolving monetary policy are converging to create a compelling case for gold's continued ascent, with price forecasts from major institutions suggesting a potential breach of $5,000 per ounce by year-end.

Central Bank Buying: A Structural Shift in Demand

Central banks remain the linchpin of gold's structural demand. In Q2 2025, global central banks purchased 166 tonnes of gold, a 33% decline from the prior quarter but still 41% above the 2010–2021 average. This trend accelerated in October 2025, with purchases surging to 53 tonnes-a 36% month-over-month increase, the highest level in months. Emerging-market central banks, including Poland, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, have led the charge, reflecting a broader shift toward reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty and a waning trust in dollar-denominated assets.

The National Bank of Poland, for instance, added 19 tonnes in Q2 2025, while the People's Bank of China continued its measured accumulation, bringing its total holdings to 2,299 tonnes. Serbia's National Bank has even signaled plans to double its gold reserves to 100 tonnes by 2030. According to the World Gold Council, 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months. This institutional demand is not merely cyclical but structural, permanently reducing commercial gold supply and providing sustained price support even as real interest rates rise.

Macro-Driven Tailwinds: Rate Cuts, Dollar Erosion, and Geopolitical Risks

Gold's appeal is further amplified by macroeconomic dynamics. The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts in 2026 will lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive in a low-yield environment. Goldman Sachs projects gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by year-end 2026, citing central bank demand and Fed easing as key drivers. Similarly, Bank of America forecasts an average price of $4,538 per ounce for 2026, with upside potential to $5,000 as U.S. fiscal deterioration and dollar erosion persist.

Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, have cemented gold's role as a safe-haven asset. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its aftermath have accelerated central banks' efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with gold increasingly viewed as a strategic hedge against currency volatility. J.P. Morgan analysts estimate that investor and central bank demand will average 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026, fueling a projected price rise toward $5,000 per ounce.

Gold's Multi-Asset Safe-Haven Role
Beyond central banks, gold's safe-haven status is being reinforced by broader market dynamics. Global gold ETFs posted their largest quarterly inflow in years in 3Q 2025, adding 220 tonnes of central bank purchases to a record 1,313 tonnes of total demand. This institutional and retail demand reflects a growing recognition of gold's utility in hedging against inflation, debt crises, and systemic risks. As J.P. Morgan notes, gold is transitioning from a cyclical asset to a long-term portfolio allocation.

Positioning for 2026: A Strategic Imperative

The case for gold in 2026 is not speculative but rooted in structural and macroeconomic fundamentals. Central banks are reshaping global reserve strategies, while geopolitical and monetary uncertainties are amplifying demand for a currency-agnostic store of value. With institutional forecasts aligning on a $5,000-per-ounce target by year-end, investors would be wise to consider exposure through physical gold, ETFs, or mining equities.

As the world navigates a multipolar monetary system, gold's role as a strategic asset-and its ability to outperform in times of crisis-makes it an indispensable component of a resilient portfolio.