¿Por qué el oro superará a Bitcoin en 2025?

In 2025, the investment landscape has witnessed a stark divergence between gold and Bitcoin. While gold surged by over 55%-cementing its status as the year's top-performing major asset class-Bitcoin plummeted by 30% from its October peak near $126,200 according to analysis. This chasm reflects a broader shift in institutional demand and macroeconomic dynamics, with gold reclaiming its role as the ultimate safe-haven asset.

Institutional Demand: A Structural Shift

Central banks and institutional investors have increasingly prioritized gold over Bitcoin in 2025, driven by its historical reliability and strategic value. Central bank gold purchases have reached record levels, with combined holdings set to surpass U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since the mid-1990s. This trend is underscored by gold ETFs amassing over $407 billion in assets-more than double the $166 billion in Bitcoin ETFs.

The appeal of gold lies in its dual role as a store of value and a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties. For instance, central banks in emerging markets have accelerated gold accumulation to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and safeguard against currency devaluation. In contrast, Bitcoin's institutional adoption, while growing, remains constrained by its volatility and unproven safe-haven credentials. Despite the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency's price movements in 2025 have often mirrored equities, amplifying portfolio risk rather than mitigating it.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Inflation, Fiscal Deficits, and Geopolitical Risks

Gold's outperformance in 2025 is inextricably linked to macroeconomic tailwinds. The U.S. government's persistent fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures-despite a slight easing to 3.7% in October 2025-have eroded confidence in fiat currencies, driving demand for non-debasing assets like gold. Analysts at J.P. Morgan predict gold prices will average $3,675 per ounce by year-end 2025, with potential to reach $4,000 by mid-2026.

Geopolitical tensions further amplified gold's allure. As global trade uncertainties and conflicts escalated, gold's low correlation with risk-on assets like the Nasdaq reinforced its role as a "financial fire blanket." Conversely, Bitcoin's performance during crises has faltered. For example, in October 2025, Bitcoin dropped to $104,000 amid tariff panic before rebounding-a volatility pattern that contrasts sharply with gold's resilience.

The Safe-Haven Debate: Time-Tested vs. Digital Promise

Gold's dominance in 2025 underscores a fundamental divide in investor psychology. While Bitcoin's proponents tout its scarcity and technological innovation, the metal has reaffirmed its status as a time-tested hedge. UBS analysts note that gold's structural strength-bolstered by central bank demand and its role in diversified portfolios-positions it as a cornerstone of portfolio resilience.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, faces headwinds. Its susceptibility to technical risks, such as potential 51% attacks and quantum computing threats, remains a concern for institutional investors. Moreover, Bitcoin's energy-intensive production and regulatory ambiguities have limited its adoption as a reserve asset compared to gold's established infrastructure.

Conclusion: Complementary Assets, Divergent Roles

The 2025 divergence between gold and Bitcoin highlights their distinct risk profiles. Gold's outperformance is a testament to its enduring appeal as a crisis hedge and its alignment with macroeconomic tailwinds. Bitcoin, while offering diversification potential, remains a speculative asset with unproven safe-haven status. For institutions, the lesson is clear: treat gold as a defensive anchor and Bitcoin as a high-risk, high-reward complement.

As global uncertainties persist, gold's structural strength and institutional trust ensure its primacy in 2025-and likely beyond.