Gold Daily | Spot Gold Rises 3.6% Since August Amid Fed Speculation and Dollar Weakness

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

On Friday, spot gold prices slightly declined to $3,414.07, experiencing a 3.6% rise since August, peaking at $3,423.16 on Thursday. The dollar index rose but showed a monthly decrease of 2.2%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury slightly increased but expected a monthly drop. Investors await the US inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold prices show a short-term optimistic outlook as the 21-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average. The 14-day RSI is around 60, indicating buying strength. Immediate resistance lies at $3,423, followed by static resistance at approximately $3,440, and the higher target is the June peak of $3,453. Support levels are at the previous low of $3,385, with further support at the 21-day moving average of $3,366, and the 50-day moving average at $3,349.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Gold's recent rise was driven by dollar weakening and safe-haven demand due to concerns over Federal Reserve independence. President Trump's pressure on the Fed has fueled speculation of accelerated rate cuts and prolonged low-interest rates, supporting gold. Fed Governor Lisa Cook's lawsuit against Trump and dovish Fed comments have also dampened dollar sentiment. The market has a high expectation for a Fed rate cut in September, influenced by the upcoming core PCE inflation data, which could further boost gold if it falls below expectations.

【Analyst Opinions】

Han Tan suggests that despite a stronger dollar, gold is influenced by the psychological $3,400 mark. If inflation remains within market concerns, gold may hold above this level. Conversely, disappointing PCE data could push gold below $3,400. Valeria Bednarik highlights the bullish trend with gold breaking above moving averages and RSI near 61, suggesting persistent upward momentum. Tai Wong notes that prolonged Fed independence concerns have been beneficial for gold. Daniel Pavilonis predicts gold could reach $3,700 by year-end.