Gold Daily | Spot Gold Hits Historic High Amid Strong U.S. GDP; Faces Pressure from Rising Yields

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

As of Friday, spot gold is trading at $3,749.24 per ounce, marking a 1.9% increase since early this week. Earlier, it hit a historic high of $3,790.82. Recent strong U.S. GDP data have weakened expectations for further rate cuts, impacting gold's stability.

【Technical Analysis】

Gold is currently in a consolidation phase due to rising yields and a stronger dollar. Buyers may find better risk-return setups near major trend lines, while sellers look for a downside breach, possibly targeting the $3,120 level. The 4-hour chart shows a minor uptrend line supporting bullish momentum, with potential buyer entry near this line. In the 1-hour chart, a minor downtrend defines the pullback, with sellers targeting new lows and buyers aiming to push prices beyond $3,761.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

The strong U.S. GDP growth and declining initial jobless claims have reduced expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Fed, with probabilities for October and December rate cuts adjusted to 87% and 62%, respectively. Despite challenges from strong U.S. data, higher yields, and a surging dollar, gold has shown resilience, although its upside now seems limited due to hawkish repricing of rate hike expectations. Upcoming data releases, including ISM PMI and labor market reports, will be crucial, particularly the ADP and NFP.

【Analyst Opinions】

Han Tan suggests that given the robust performance of the U.S. economy, gold prices are stable in the $3,700 range but may face pressure if inflation data comes in higher than expected. Peter Grant warns that the biggest short-term risk for gold lies in PCE data exceeding expectations, which could boost the dollar and temporarily weigh on gold prices. Valeria Bednarik notes potential for further gold price decline based on recent technical patterns, while recognizing significant support and resistance levels for near-term trading.