Gold Daily | Spot Gold Declines 0.4% Amid Improved Risk Sentiment and Technical Uncertainties

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

As of the week's close, spot gold is priced at $3,337.17 per ounce, marking a 0.4% decline. Despite early gains, gold prices reversed midweek due to improved risk sentiment following positive trade talks, reducing its safe haven appeal.

【Technical Analysis】

Analyst Eren Sengezer highlights short-term technical uncertainties for gold buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly below 50, indicating indecision among buyers. Gold struggled to maintain gains after breaking above the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages earlier in the week. On the upside, resistance lies at $3,400 per ounce, with further targets at $3,450 and $3,500 per ounce. On the downside, if gold remains below $3,340 per ounce, sellers may push it towards $3,285, $3,250, and $3,150 per ounce.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

Investor attention is focused on upcoming macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, which may increase gold's volatility. The economic calendar includes key data releases, with the Fed's meeting set for July 29-30. Markets currently see minimal chance of a rate cut in July, and a 40% likelihood of unchanged rates in September. Key GDP data might influence rate expectations; a negative reading could prompt rate cut forecasts and boost gold, while expected results might deter gold buying. Additionally, Fed Chair Powell’s comments on recent trade agreements could impact rate expectations and gold prices. The labor market report, due Friday, may influence Fed policy based on employment figures, potentially affecting gold demand. Positive progress in US-China trade talks could further suppress gold interest.

【Analyst Opinions】

Economists suggest that if Powell opens the door to a rate cut citing reduced trade uncertainties, gold may rally. Conversely, referencing inflation data could result in lower gold prices. The upcoming employment report will be crucial in shaping market sentiment towards gold, with labor market resilience possibly bolstering the dollar over gold.