Gold Daily | Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Near Two-Month High, Profit-Taking Leads to Retracement

【Latest Gold Price and Recent Trends】

International gold prices surged to near a two-month high due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran. However, prices retracted on Monday as investors took profits. Spot gold fell 0.5% to around $3,415, after hitting a high of $3,451.14 earlier.

【Technical Analysis】

On the daily chart, gold reached the key level of $3,438 due to Middle East tensions. On the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the formation of ascending trend lines suggests bullish momentum. Buyers aim for new highs, while sellers watch for breaks below these lines for bearish positions.

【Market Sentiment and Economic Background】

The Israel-Iran conflict has driven safe-haven demand for gold, with geopolitical risks adding a premium. However, as long as oil supply remains unaffected, the macroeconomic impact is limited. Signs of de-escalation could diminish safe-haven demand, potentially reversing gold's recent gains. Long-term, gold remains in an uptrend due to expected Fed rate cuts and declining real yields.

【Analyst Opinions】

Analysts highlight the political risk premium from the Israel-Iran conflict as a driver for gold demand. The Fed's upcoming monetary policy decision, particularly any hints of future rate cuts, is also pivotal. While geopolitical events often lead to short-lived gold rallies, structural factors continue to support upward trends. If geopolitical tensions persist, gold could rise further, while a de-escalation might lead to a pullback. The market is closely watching for Fed signals and oil price movements as indicators of future gold price directions.