Momentum alcista del oro: una compra estratégica para el 2026?

The global financial landscape in late 2025 is marked by a confluence of macroeconomic forces and technical indicators that are fueling a compelling case for gold. As central banks pivot toward rate cuts, the U.S. dollar weakens, and technical patterns suggest sustained upward momentum, gold is emerging as a strategic asset for 2026. This analysis synthesizes the latest forecasts, structural trends, and market dynamics to evaluate whether gold's bullish trajectory justifies a long-term investment thesis.

1. Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Tailwind for Gold

The Federal Reserve's projected easing cycle in 2026 is a cornerstone of gold's bullish narrative. While the Fed's median forecast anticipates a single 25-basis-point rate cut, institutions like Morningstar Investment Management argue for two cuts, citing divergent views on inflation and labor market resilience. By year-end 2026, inflation is expected to ease to 2.5%, while economic growth forecasts have been upgraded to 2.3%. However, internal divisions within the Fed-some members opposing further cuts-introduce uncertainty, creating a risk-rebalance scenario where gold's safe-haven appeal could intensify.

Gold's inverse relationship with interest rates is well-documented. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, directly boosting demand. Goldman Sachs Research underscores this dynamic, projecting gold to rise to $4,000/oz by mid-2026 as Fed easing and structural demand from central banks converge. Morgan Stanley's revised $4,400/oz target further reinforces the view that rate cuts will underpin gold's ascent.

2. U.S. Dollar Weakness: A Catalyst for Global Demand

The U.S. dollar's structural decline in 2026 is another critical driver. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for international buyers, particularly in emerging markets, where central banks are aggressively diversifying reserves. By October 2025, central banks had already purchased 254 tonnes of gold year-to-date, with Poland, Brazil, and Kazakhstan leading the charge. The National Bank of Poland alone added 16 tonnes in October 2025, signaling a strategic shift toward gold as a hedge.

Gold's performance is also amplified by the dollar's inverse correlation with the precious metal. Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs forecast a 3% dollar decline by year-end 2026, which would further reduce the opportunity cost of gold ownership. This dynamic is compounded by ETF inflows: global gold ETFs added 222 tonnes in Q3 2025 alone, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) surging 62% year-to-date. As the dollar weakens and central banks continue buying, gold's role as a diversification tool and inflation hedge becomes increasingly attractive.

3. Technical Indicators: A Structural Bull Case

Technical analysis paints a robust picture for gold in 2026. As of late 2025, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is trading near all-time highs, supported by a sharp ascending channel and a 14-day RSI approaching overbought territory. Key resistance levels at $4,355 and $4,390 per ounce suggest the market is primed for a breakout. An ascending triangle pattern-a bullish continuation structure-further signals potential for a move above $4,400/oz.

J.P. Morgan Research anticipates an average price of $3,675/oz in Q4 2025, with a projected climb toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley's elevated forecasts ($5,055 and $4,400, respectively) reflect confidence in the technical and macroeconomic alignment. Persistent supply constraints and the dollar's weakness are expected to reinforce this trajectory, ensuring gold remains in a structural bull cycle.

4. Geopolitical and Structural Tailwinds

Beyond rate cuts and dollar weakness, gold's appeal is bolstered by geopolitical tensions and supply-side dynamics. Central banks in emerging markets are prioritizing gold to hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, physical-market supply tightness-driven by mining bottlenecks and recycling constraints-adds a layer of scarcity, further supporting prices.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy for 2026

The convergence of Fed easing, dollar weakness, and technical strength creates a compelling case for gold in 2026. With central banks and ETFs acting as tailwinds, and structural factors like supply constraints and geopolitical risks amplifying demand, gold is well-positioned to outperform traditional assets. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the macroeconomic and technical foundations suggest a long-term bull case. For investors seeking to hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and systemic risk, gold remains a strategic buy.