El aumento del precio del oro del 64%: Una perspectiva histórica para el año 2026

Gold's 2025 surge was not just strong; it was a historic event. The metal posted a 67% annual return, its best year since 1979, and hit a record high of $4,449 per ounce. This explosive move, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar, has left many investors wondering if the rally is over. The answer, as history suggests, often lies in the timing, not the peak.

By the numbers, this cycle is still young. As of late October, the rally had lasted roughly 735 days. That's a substantial run, but it falls short of the historical average for major bull markets, which have lasted about 1,062 days. In other words, gold is still in the early innings of a typical multi-year climb. This pattern holds a key lesson: hitting all-time highs often signals the beginning, not the end. In past cycles, gold frequently broke its previous record early on, only to spend years consolidating and moving higher. The 1970s bull market, for instance, saw gold surge over 2,300% in less than a decade, with its first major peak coming well before the final parabolic leg.

Viewed through this lens, the current rally's brevity is more telling than its magnitude. The metal's record price is a sign of conviction, not exhaustion. It suggests the fundamental forces-fiscal deficits, waning confidence in fiat currencies, and geopolitical risk-remain intact. As one analyst noted, the "debasement trade" has gone mainstream, but the behavior that would signal a peak hasn't appeared. The historical rhyme, not the exact repeat, points to more runway ahead.

The Structural Drivers vs. the Momentum Trade

The 2025 rally was a powerful momentum trade, but the 2026 outlook hinges on deeper, persistent forces. The surge was fueled by a perfect storm of tariff fears, a weaker dollar, and opportunistic buying. Yet, as the market settles from that peak, the distinction between transient momentum and enduring structural demand becomes critical.

On one side, we have the conviction buyers who are setting the long-term price direction. This group includes central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators building long positions. Their thesis-driven flows are the engine of a bull cycle. As of late 2025, net long bets on the COMEX were at a 73rd percentile since 2014, indicating crowded but still constructive positioning. More importantly, their demand is structural. Central banks, for instance, are expected to keep buying, with Goldman Sachs forecasting 64 tonnes of gold per month this year. That pace, while seasonal, supports a backdrop of sustained demand. J.P. Morgan notes that central bank and investor demand for gold is set to remain strong, averaging 585 tonnes a quarter in 2026. This isn't a one-time portfolio rebalance; it's a multi-year strategic reallocation away from traditional reserve assets.

The core of this structural demand is the "debasement trade." Investors are shifting to gold as a store of value amid record global debt and currency concerns. With global sectoral debt at $340 trillion and government debt at a record 30%, gold's appeal as a hedge against duration risk and currency erosion is a long-term theme, not a short-term fad. This is the fundamental rhyme that history suggests will persist.

Viewed through this lens, the 2025 rally was the momentum phase-the period where these structural forces broke through psychological and technical barriers. The consolidation ahead is the market digesting that move, with the conviction buyers providing the floor. The key point is that the forces driving the rally are not exhausted. They are the same ones that powered past multi-year bull markets. The historical pattern shows that after a sharp initial surge, the metal often spends time consolidating before embarking on its next major leg. The structural drivers are still in place; they are simply waiting for the next catalyst to propel prices higher.

Valuation, Catalysts, and Key Risks

The forward-looking opportunity is clear, but the high entry point demands a careful weighing of catalysts against vulnerabilities. The consensus is bullish, yet the paths diverge. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts gold to rise 6% through the middle of 2026, targeting $4,000 per ounce. That view is anchored in sustained structural demand. In contrast, J.P. Morgan takes a more aggressive stance, seeing a path to $5,000/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026. The difference in outlooks highlights the market's sensitivity to the next set of catalysts.

A key near-term catalyst is the upcoming US Supreme Court rulings on tariffs. These decisions could reshape trade policy and, by extension, influence the dollar's trajectory. A more protectionist stance or trade uncertainty would likely support gold's safe-haven appeal, while a resolution could introduce a different dynamic. Beyond this, the continued stream of geopolitical flare-ups, as noted in the December review, provides a steady source of support. The metal's role as the "safe haven of choice" is a structural advantage that can be activated by any new crisis.

Yet the primary risk to the bull case is a normalization of central bank buying. As prices climb, the need for large physical purchases to meet reserve targets may diminish. Goldman Sachs has already noted that central banks purchased less gold in July than in an average month this year, though it attributes this to seasonal patterns. The concern is that higher prices could make these purchases less urgent, potentially softening a major pillar of demand. This is the classic tension in a bull market: the very success of the rally can alter the behavior of its most committed buyers.

The bottom line is one of managed optimism. The catalysts-tariff rulings, geopolitical risk, and persistent structural demand-are present. But the high valuation leaves little room for error. The market is pricing in continued strength, meaning any stumble in central bank accumulation or a sustained dollar rally could quickly challenge the forward thesis. The path ahead will be tested not by the absence of support, but by the durability of its most powerful drivers.