La trayectoria de Gold para el año 2026: Demanda estructural vs. Realidad técnica

The 2025 rally was not a mere bounce; it was a structural repricing. Gold delivered its biggest annual gain since 1979, soaring as much as 55% and for the first time breaching $4,000 an ounce in October. This wasn't driven by fleeting sentiment but by a powerful, multi-year shift in demand. Record inflows into physical gold trusts, like Sprott's, saw $1.5 billion in U.S. dollars flow into the Sprott Physical Gold Trust this year alone, signaling a new alignment between performance and investor interest. More fundamentally, central banks have become a relentless, quarterly buyer, with average quarterly purchases of 585 tonnes setting a new benchmark for official sector demand.

The drivers behind this shift are structural. Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks created a persistent safe-haven bid. At the same time, a clear trend toward de-dollarization has seen central banks actively seek to reduce their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. This is compounded by deep-seated investor concerns over currency debasement, positioning gold as a critical hedge against the loss of purchasing power. These forces are redefining gold's role from a speculative asset to a core component of reserve and portfolio allocation.

The bottom line is that the rally has validated a multi-year bid. As J.P. Morgan's head of Global Commodities Strategy noted, the long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further to run. The 64% surge has re-priced the metal's structural value, but the sheer pace of the move now invites scrutiny. The question for 2026 is not whether this structural demand will persist, but whether the market can sustain its momentum without a correction.

Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy: Navigating the Channel

The structural demand for gold has created a powerful, growing bullish channel. The price, currently around $4,453 per ounce, has decisively broken above key resistance, validating the upward trend. This technical setup provides a clear framework for tactical positioning. The strategy is straightforward: buy the dips within the channel, but only with strict adherence to defined levels.

The core of the plan is a simple, high-probability entry signal. On the 4-hour chart, a bullish crossover of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with 20 length and the Simple Moving Average (SMA) with 9 length serves as the trigger. This crossover must be confirmed by the close of a 4-hour candle, ensuring the SMA stays above the EMA. This setup aligns with the channel's momentum, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.

Risk management is non-negotiable. A stop-loss order must be placed below the recent swing low near $4,425. This level acts as the channel's support. A decisive break below it would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting the channel has broken down. The forecast explicitly states that a decline and a breakout of $4,385 would cancel the upward price scenario, indicating a potential decline toward $4,275. Therefore, the stop-loss should be set just below this critical $4,385 support to protect capital.

For the target, the channel itself provides the guide. The forecast points to a potential rebound and continued growth with a target above $4,565. This level represents the next major resistance within the ascending structure. The trade management rule is to trail the stop-loss using the EMA, locking in profits as the trend extends.

The bottom line is that the technical picture supports a buy-the-dip approach. However, the channel's integrity is paramount. The strategy is only valid as long as the price holds above the $4,385 support. Any breach of that level signals a fundamental shift in the technical narrative, requiring a reassessment of the bullish thesis.

Forward Scenarios: Catalysts, Risks, and Valuation

The forward path for gold is one of high conviction meeting high volatility. The bullish catalysts are structural and potent: sustained geopolitical friction, persistent concerns over currency debasement, and the powerful, ongoing trend of central bank diversification. These forces have already driven the metal to historic highs and are the foundation for forecasts pushing toward $5,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. J.P. Morgan's view is that the long-term trend of official and investor diversification has further to run, supporting this trajectory.

Yet, the market is pricing in a more nuanced reality. HSBC's updated forecast captures this tension, lowering its average 2026 price forecast to $4,587 an ounce from $4,600. More telling is the bank's wide projected range of $5,050 to $3,950 per ounce, with an end-year price view of $4,450. This volatility is explicitly flagged, and the bank warns that a correction could be deeper if key support factors fade. The primary risks cited are a subsidy in geopolitical risks or, critically, the U.S. Federal Reserve stopping its interest rate cuts. A halt to easing would directly increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, a classic macro headwind.

A key structural headwind is emerging from the very success of the rally. As prices climb, the marginal impact of central bank buying diminishes. The evidence notes that with prices around $4,000 an ounce and above, central banks simply don't need to purchase as many tonnes of gold to move their gold share to the desired percentage. This is a mechanical change in behavior, not a structural shift, but it does mean the quarterly demand engine may slow from its recent peak of over 980 tonnes. J.P. Morgan's projection of average quarterly demand of 585 tonnes in 2026 reflects this, a step down from the explosive 2025 inflows.

The bottom line is a market balancing powerful, long-term drivers against near-term technical and macro risks. The bullish $5,000 target is a plausible scenario if geopolitical and debt pressures persist, but it is not guaranteed. The valuation context is one of elevated prices, where the next leg of gains will require even more concentrated demand to overcome the higher price floor. For now, the setup is one of high potential reward tempered by significant volatility and a clear dependency on the Fed's next move.