Paso en la demanda de refugio a oro en 2025: un cambio estructural en la demanda y reasignación del portafolio

The year 2025 has marked a seismic shift in the global financial landscape, with gold prices surging to record highs and redefining its role as a safe-haven asset. By early November, gold had breached $4,170 per troy ounce, a 57% gain in the first ten months of the year, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic forces, central bank behavior, and geopolitical uncertainty. This surge is not merely cyclical but reflects a structural reallocation of capital toward tangible assets, signaling a profound transformation in how global investors and policymakers perceive risk and value.

Central Bank Behavior: A Strategic Rebalancing of Reserves

Central banks have been the most visible catalysts of gold's resurgence. In 2025, global central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022, with October alone seeing a 36% month-over-month increase in net purchases, totaling 53 tonnes. Emerging market central banks, including those in China, Turkey, India, Poland, Brazil, and Uzbekistan, have led the charge, driven by a strategic shift away from the U.S. dollar. The National Bank of Poland, for instance, re-entered the gold market in October after a brief pause, adding 16 tonnes to its reserves and raising its total holdings to 531 tonnes.

This trend underscores a broader reallocation of reserves toward gold as a hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical instability. According to a report by the World Finance Institute, 95% of surveyed central banks anticipate increasing their gold reserves in 2026, reflecting a growing consensus that gold offers a seizure-resistant, inflation-protected alternative to fiat currencies. The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies and perceived threats to the Federal Reserve's independence have further eroded confidence in the dollar, accelerating de-dollarization efforts.

De-Dollarization and Geopolitical Uncertainty: A Perfect Storm

The erosion of the dollar's dominance is not merely a byproduct of policy but a deliberate strategy by central banks to diversify reserves. As stated by analysts at VanEck, gold is increasingly viewed as a neutral asset in a multipolar world where geopolitical tensions-ranging from the Russia-Ukraine war to U.S.-China trade disputes-have heightened fears of currency devaluation and capital controls. The dollar's depreciation, exacerbated by potential Fed rate cuts and global debt levels surpassing $324 trillion, has made gold more accessible and attractive to non-U.S. investors.

This de-dollarization trend is further amplified by the structural weaknesses of fiat currencies. With global debt at historic highs and central banks losing faith in the stability of sovereign debt, gold's role as a store of value has become indispensable. As one analyst noted, "Gold is no longer a luxury asset-it's a necessity for central banks seeking to preserve economic sovereignty in an era of uncertainty."

Macroeconomic Indicators and Investor Sentiment: A Convergence of Forces

The surge in gold demand is not confined to central banks. Investor sentiment has also shifted dramatically, with Western ETF inflows resuming after years of outflows. This return to gold reflects a growing recognition of its utility as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators such as rising inflation and currency depreciation have reinforced gold's appeal. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle, coupled with global inflationary pressures, has created a tailwind for gold, which thrives in environments of monetary expansion and currency erosion.

The Road Ahead: A Structural Bull Market

Looking forward, the structural bull market for gold appears firmly entrenched. Analysts project prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2030, driven by continued central bank demand, ETF inflows, and a global reallocation of reserves toward tangible assets. The interplay of these factors suggests that gold's role as a safe-haven asset is here to stay, with its price trajectory increasingly decoupled from traditional economic cycles.

For investors, the implications are clear: gold is no longer a niche play but a core component of a diversified portfolio in a world of heightened uncertainty. As central banks and institutional investors continue to rebalance their holdings, the structural shift toward gold represents both a cautionary tale about the fragility of fiat currencies and a testament to the enduring appeal of a timeless asset.