Retiro histórico de oro en 2025: un cambio estructural en la asignación de cartera

The year 2025 has marked a historic turning point for gold, with prices surging past $4,000 per ounce amid a confluence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and institutional forces. This rally is not merely a cyclical spike but a structural redefinition of gold's role in global portfolios. Central bank demand, de-dollarization trends, and shifting Fed policy have collectively reshaped gold's appeal, positioning it as a cornerstone of institutional asset allocation in an era of systemic uncertainty.

Central Bank Demand: A Catalyst for Structural Strength

Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have emerged as the most influential drivers of gold's 2025 surge. According to a report by VanEck, global central banks accumulated over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually since 2022, signaling a deliberate shift away from the U.S. dollar toward a non-sovereign store of value. This trend reflects a broader strategy of diversification, as nations seek to insulate their reserves from currency volatility and geopolitical risks. For instance, China, India, and members of the BRICS bloc have accelerated gold purchases to reduce reliance on Western financial systems, a move that has amplified gold's demand and price trajectory.

De-Dollarization and the Erosion of Confidence

The de-dollarization narrative has gained momentum as global confidence in the U.S. dollar wanes. Public debt levels in the U.S. have reached record highs, while credit rating agencies have hinted at potential downgrades, further eroding trust in the greenback. Gold, with its intrinsic value and historical resilience, has become a natural hedge against currency devaluation. As stated by Keaney Financial Services, this shift is not just speculative but structural, with central banks and institutional investors increasingly viewing gold as a counterbalance to fiat currency risks.

Fed Policy and the Gold Price Regime

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory has also played a pivotal role in gold's renaissance. While real interest rates remain low, the expectation of incremental rate cuts in 2026 has bolstered gold's appeal. J.P. Morgan Global Research highlights that easing monetary policy and prolonged low-yield environments favor gold, which thrives in scenarios where inflation outpaces nominal returns. Additionally, the Fed's pivot toward accommodative measures has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, further incentivizing institutional adoption.

Institutional Flows and Portfolio Rebalancing

Institutional and investor flows have reinforced gold's structural strength. After years of outflows, gold ETFs have seen a robust rebound in 2025, with Western investors returning to the market amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. According to VanEck, this shift is not merely reactive but strategic: gold's low correlation with traditional asset classes and its historical performance during crises make it an essential component of diversified portfolios. As noted by SSGA, the combination of central bank demand and institutional flows has created a more resilient market foundation than in previous bull cycles.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand

Escalating trade tensions, regional conflicts, and macroeconomic volatility have amplified gold's safe-haven status. OANDA's analysis underscores that geopolitical instability directly correlates with gold's price momentum, as investors seek refuge from market turbulence. This dynamic has been particularly pronounced in 2025, where gold's role as a hedge against systemic risk has attracted both retail and institutional buyers.

Looking Ahead: A $5,000+ Outlook

Analysts project that gold's structural tailwinds will persist well into 2026. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices reaching $5,000 per ounce by year-end, driven by sustained central bank demand averaging 585 tonnes per quarter and continued institutional inflows. Long-term, structural trends-including central bank diversification and global geopolitical fragmentation-suggest gold could test $6,000 per ounce, cementing its status as a core asset in portfolios worldwide.

Conclusion

Gold's 2025 rally represents more than a price surge-it signals a paradigm shift in how institutions approach asset allocation. The interplay of de-dollarization, Fed policy pivots, and geopolitical instability has transformed gold from a cyclical commodity into a strategic reserve asset. As central banks and investors continue to prioritize stability over currency risk, gold's institutionalization is poised to redefine modern portfolio construction.