La rallytónica histórica del oro en 2025 y sus implicaciones para 2026

The year 2025 marked a seismic shift in global financial markets, with gold surging to record highs amid a confluence of structural forces reshaping the monetary landscape. By December 2025, gold prices had breached $4,500 per ounce, driven by accelerating de-dollarization, aggressive central bank buying, and a global pivot toward accommodative monetary policies. This historic rally underscores a broader reordering of the world's financial architecture, with profound implications for 2026 and beyond.

De-Dollarization: A Structural Shift in Reserve Allocation

The de-dollarization trend has gained unprecedented momentum in 2025, as central banks increasingly diversify away from the U.S. dollar to mitigate risks tied to U.S. fiscal instability and geopolitical tensions. According to a report by , U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, fueling concerns over the sustainability of dollar dominance in global reserves. Central banks in China, India, and Poland have led the charge, with annual gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes in recent years. This shift reflects a strategic move to hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, as gold's seizure-resistant nature and universal acceptance make it an ideal alternative to dollar-denominated assets.

Gold's growing role in central bank reserves is now evident in its market share, which has outpaced U.S. Treasuries in some emerging markets. This trend is not merely cyclical but structural, as nations seek to insulate their economies from U.S. monetary overreach and sanctions-driven volatility. Analysts project that this reallocation will continue into 2026, further solidifying gold's position as a cornerstone of global monetary portfolios.

Central Bank Buying: A Catalyst for Price Momentum

Central bank demand has been a primary driver of gold's 2025 rally, with institutional purchases accounting for over 40% of total demand. Data from indicates that gold's share in central bank reserves has grown substantially, reflecting its role as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. By year-end 2025, gold reserves had surpassed U.S. Treasuries in global central bank holdings, a milestone that signals a paradigm shift in how nations manage liquidity and risk.

This surge in demand has directly translated into price action. Gold's price surged 71% in 2025, reaching $4,531 per ounce by December, marking the largest annual gain since 1979. The purchasing power of gold has appreciated over 600% since 2000, reinforcing its status as a long-term store of value. With central banks projected to maintain aggressive buying in 2026, analysts at J.P. Morgan Global Research anticipate further price appreciation, with targets of $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce by year-end.

Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Tailwind for Gold

The 2025 rate-cutting cycle, led by the Federal Reserve, has amplified gold's appeal by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The Fed's December 2025 rate cut marked the culmination of an unprecedented loosening cycle, with gold prices continuing to climb despite hawkish messaging from policymakers. Lower interest rates eroded the real return on dollar-denominated assets, pushing investors toward gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

The dollar's depreciation following the rate cuts further enhanced gold's attractiveness. notes, gold's multi-currency strength-driven by weaker U.S. dollar demand-contributed to its record highs. This dynamic is expected to persist in 2026, as global central banks maintain accommodative policies to stimulate growth amid lingering economic uncertainties.

Implications for 2026: A Structural Bull Case

The convergence of de-dollarization, central bank buying, and rate cuts has created a robust structural bull case for gold. By 2026, the metal is poised to benefit from continued central bank demand, a potential shift in global monetary systems, and sustained inflationary pressures. J.P. Morgan projects gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026, while other analysts suggest a range of $4,500 to $4,900.

Investors should also consider the geopolitical and macroeconomic risks that could accelerate gold's ascent. Tariff announcements, government shutdown crises, and ongoing U.S. fiscal challenges remain tailwinds for the metal. In this environment, gold's role as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against systemic risk is likely to expand, making it a critical component of diversified portfolios.

Conclusion

Gold's 2025 rally is not an isolated price surge but a reflection of deeper structural shifts in global finance. As de-dollarization accelerates, central banks continue to accumulate gold, and rate cuts depress the real value of fiat currencies, the case for gold remains compelling. For 2026, investors are advised to position for further appreciation, leveraging the metal's unique ability to thrive in times of uncertainty.