Golar LNG's FLNG Gimi COD: A Catalyst for Sustained EBITDA Growth and Scalable LNG Leadership

The June 23, 2025, Commercial Operations Date (COD) achievement for Golar LNG's FLNG Gimi marks a pivotal moment for the company's strategic trajectory. This milestone unlocks a $3 billion Adjusted EBITDA backlog over 20 years, solidifying Golar's position as the global leader in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) solutions. Combined with recent FLNG charters in Argentina and advancements in next-generation FLNG designs, Golar is now primed to capitalize on surging global LNG demand while reducing execution risk through diversified, long-term cash flows.

### The FLNG Gimi COD: A $3B EBITDA Backlog Triggered
The FLNG Gimi's COD for the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal is a landmark achievement. The 20-year Lease and Operate Agreement now in effect guarantees Golar $150 million in annual predictable cash flow, with cumulative EBITDA contributions of $3 billion over the contract period. This milestone not only validates Golar's technical expertise in executing complex offshore LNG projects but also positions Mauritania and Senegal as new LNG exporters, a strategic shift for Africa's energy landscape.



The GTA project's ramp-up to 90% of FLNG Gimi's 2.7 mtpa capacity—exceeding initial expectations—demonstrates strong operational execution. With five LNG cargos already shipped by early Q3 2025, the project is on track to meet its 2.4 mtpa annual target. This success reduces investor concerns about execution risk, a critical factor for a company heavily reliant on long-term project outcomes.

### Argentina's FLNG Charters: Diversifying Revenue Streams
Golar's May 2, 2025, announcement of two FLNG charters in Argentina further underscores its growth strategy. These agreements, part of a broader push to secure new markets, add to Golar's existing backlog and diversify its client base. While specifics remain undisclosed, the move aligns with the company's focus on leveraging its fleet to serve emerging LNG markets.

The Argentina deals are particularly notable as they come amid heightened global demand for flexible LNG solutions. With traditional LNG terminals facing delays and cost overruns, FLNG units offer a scalable alternative, enabling countries to monetize stranded gas reserves quickly. Golar's ability to secure multiple charters within months of the FLNG Gimi's COD highlights its competitive advantage in this space.

### Scaling the FLNG Fleet: MKIII and MKI Designs
Golar is now advancing multiple design pathways to address evolving market needs:
1. 3.5 mtpa MKII Option: Progressing at the CIMC Raffles shipyard, this design builds on the success of the FLNG Hilli and Gimi units.
2. 5 mtpa MKIII FLNG: A final engineering study will validate EPC costs and timelines, targeting larger-scale projects.
3. 2.7 mtpa MKI FLNG: Updated cost and schedule assessments aim to make this model more competitive for smaller projects.

These multi-capacity options allow Golar to cater to a spectrum of demand, from mid-sized projects in emerging markets to large-scale ventures requiring higher liquefaction capacity. The MKIII's potential to handle 5 mtpa—a 48% increase over the current FLNG Gimi—could open doors to projects previously constrained by technical limits.

The company's design flexibility is a key growth catalyst. By aligning its fleet with market requirements, Golar reduces the risk of stranded assets and ensures steady backlog growth. This strategic agility positions it as the go-to partner for both established and new LNG players.

### Investment Thesis: A Play on LNG Demand Growth
Golar's portfolio now features three critical growth drivers:
1. Predictable Cash Flows: The $3B GTA backlog and Argentina charters provide a stable base of EBITDA.
2. Scalable Solutions: The MKIII/MKI designs enable capture of new market segments, driving backlog expansion.
3. Operational Proven Track Record: FLNG Gimi's COD success and early cargo shipments build investor confidence in execution.



Valuation-wise, Golar's current stock price (as of June 2025) appears undervalued relative to its backlog growth. With $13.7 billion in existing EBITDA backlog from prior agreements (FLNG Hilli and MKII charters) plus the new $3B GTA contribution, Golar's total backlog exceeds $16.7 billion—a key metric for long-term investors. This backlog represents ~$835 million in annualized EBITDA, well above its 2024 EBITDA of $174 million.

### Risks and Considerations
- Commodity Price Volatility: LNG prices could impact margins, though most contracts are structured with cost-of-service or fee-based models.
- Project Delays: While FLNG Gimi's success reduces execution risk, new projects may face logistical or regulatory hurdles.
- Competitor Entry: Rival FLNG providers could challenge Golar's dominance, though its first-mover advantage and operational expertise are strong moats.

### Conclusion: A Compelling Buy on Backlog Expansion
Golar LNG's COD milestone and fleet expansion initiatives reduce execution risk while amplifying its exposure to global LNG demand growth. With a robust backlog, scalable solutions, and a proven track record, Golar is positioned to deliver steady cash flows and outperform peers as LNG becomes a cornerstone of energy transition. Investors seeking exposure to the FLNG boom should consider Golar as a core holding, particularly if its stock remains undervalued relative to its backlog potential.

Investment Rating: Strong Buy (Long-Term Horizon)
Key Watchlist: FLNG charter announcements, MKIII design progress, and LNG price trends.