GMX/USDC Market Overview: Volatility and Key Breakpoints in a 24-Hour Window

• GMX/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of $9.61–$9.87, closing at $9.83, below the open at $9.8.
• A bearish shift was noted after 6:00 PM ET with a breakdown below $9.82, followed by a recovery attempt around 6:00 AM ET.
• Volatility spiked during the 6:00 AM–12:00 PM ET period, with $9.73–$9.87 acting as a key consolidation range.
• Volume surged in the 24-hour window to 750.61 USDC, with notable spikes during the 1:15 AM and 3:00 AM ET sessions.
• The market appears to be forming a bearish pennant pattern near the 24-hour low at $9.61, indicating potential for a continuation lower.

GMX/USDC opened at $9.8 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at $9.83 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $9.87 and a low of $9.61, indicating a strong range-bound session with a bearish bias in the latter half. The total volume of the pair was 750.61, with turnover reaching approximately $6,858.85 (calculated using price × volume across all candles). The session ended with price slightly above the opening level, but with bearish momentum visible in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a key bearish breakdown below $9.82 around 6:00 PM ET, which preceded a consolidation phase between $9.73–$9.87. A notable bullish hammer formed at 2:00 AM ET near $9.78, indicating possible short-covering or buying interest. Resistance levels appear to be forming at $9.82, $9.85, and $9.87, while strong support is forming at $9.73 and $9.61, where price found a floor in the morning hours.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, both hovering around $9.8 and $9.81, respectively. Price oscillated above and below both lines, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. The MACD line crossed into negative territory after 6:00 PM ET, aligning with the bearish reversal seen in price. The RSI entered oversold territory during the 2:00 AM–4:00 AM ET window, briefly dipping below 30, before rebounding. The RSI is now stabilizing near the 50–60 range, suggesting moderate bullish momentum may be returning.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Levels

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 2:00 AM ET, with price dropping below the lower band at $9.73, signaling a period of heightened volatility. Price has since retracted toward the middle band, which currently sits at $9.82. Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1:15 AM–3:00 AM ET decline from $9.8 to $9.73, the 61.8% retracement level is at $9.77, which coincides with the $9.77–$9.78 range. This suggests that the next key support level could be at or just below $9.77, with the 38.2% retracement level at $9.79 acting as a potential intermediate target if buyers re-enter the market.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the 1:15 AM–3:00 AM ET period with large-volume candles at $9.73 and $9.77, signaling heavy selling pressure. The 1:15 AM candle alone accounted for $190.35 in turnover, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has declined in the last 6 hours, with price consolidating near $9.82–$9.85, suggesting a potential exhaustion of sellers. A divergence is visible in the final hour, as price rose back to $9.83 on lower volume, which may hint at a short-term reversal. However, this could also be a false signal if buyers fail to commit at the next key level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed RSI behavior and price retests near key Fibonacci levels, a RSI-based “buy oversold / sell overbought” strategy could be tested on the GMX/USDC pair. A back-test from January 1, 2022, to November 2, 2025, would allow us to assess the effectiveness of this approach in the context of the pair’s volatility and liquidity. Using a 14-period RSI with thresholds of 30 (oversold) and 70 (overbought), along with a 15-minute time frame, the strategy would go long on RSI < 30 and exit on RSI > 70. To align with the current price action, a 20-period moving average and 10-period Bollinger Band could be added as filters to reduce false signals during range-bound sessions. Assuming a $10,000 initial capital and daily close execution, this back-test would offer insight into the pair’s suitability for RSI-driven momentum strategies in a low-liquidity, high-volatility environment.