GMX/USDC Market Overview for October 22, 2025

• GMX/USDC fell to a 24-hour low of $10.1 at 23:45 ET before stabilizing near $10.14 in the final hour.
• High volatility and bearish momentum seen in early ET hours, with a sharp decline from $10.86 to $10.12 over 6 hours.
• Bollinger Bands show price retesting lower bounds, while volume remains uneven, with sharp spikes during key drops.
• RSI and MACD failed to confirm strong oversold conditions, hinting at potential for further consolidation or bounce.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest critical levels at $10.36 and $10.10 as near-term resistance and support, respectively.

GMX/USDC opened at $10.75 on October 21 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $10.86 before closing at $10.14 as of October 22 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a low of $10.1 during the session. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 2,146.49, with a notional turnover of approximately $22,389.73 in USDC terms. Price action was bearish, marked by a significant breakdown from key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bearish candlestick patterns, including a key engulfing pattern at $10.66 to $10.71 and a sharp bearish reversal at $10.17 to $10.13. A deep-bodied bearish candle at $10.66 to $10.56 (17:15–17:30 ET) marked a critical turning point. Support levels formed at $10.10 and $10.36, with $10.14 acting as a recent floor. Resistance appears clustered above $10.22 and $10.26, with a potential pivot at $10.30.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price is trading below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 20-period MA is at $10.25 and the 50-period MA at $10.32, both acting as overhead pressure. On the daily chart, price is still above the 200-day MA at $9.88 but below the 50 and 100-day MAs, suggesting a mixed but cautiously bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover forming at the start of the drop (17:00 ET), confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI fell below 30 during the afternoon, reaching as low as 25, but failed to trigger a strong bounce, indicating weak short-term oversold conditions. RSI remains in a downtrend, with a reading of 28 as of the last close.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the early drop from $10.86 to $10.12, with price closing near the lower band at $10.14. The volatility contraction resumed in the final hours, with price consolidating near the mid-band, suggesting a potential for either a bounce or further test of support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early bearish breakdown, with a high of 194.888 at 17:00 ET. Turnover also surged during that period, confirming the price drop. However, in the final hours, volume waned despite a small rebound in price, hinting at weak buying pressure. A divergence between volume and price may signal a cautious outlook for further upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key swing from $10.1 to $10.86, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $10.36, acting as a potential barrier. The 38.2% level at $10.22 is currently acting as a key pivot. If price breaks above $10.36, it could test $10.52 (78.6% retracement). A breakdown below $10.10 would suggest further bearish extension into the $10.0 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and failed RSI recovery, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting GMX/USDC at $10.20 with a stop above $10.36 and a target at $10.10. This approach assumes continuation of the current bearish trend and weak bounce conditions. A key refinement would be to confirm the RSI and volume setup, using the correct ticker (likely GMXUSDC) to ensure accurate data inputs. Using the correct ticker will allow for a more precise MACD and RSI strategy based on the observed divergence and momentum.