GMX/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• GMX/USDC rallied to a 24-hour high of $16.56 amid bullish momentum and surging volume.
• Price tested key resistance at $16.50–16.65 before consolidating, signaling potential for a continuation.
• RSI approached overbought levels, suggesting a pullback or consolidation could be near.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the rally, indicating heightened volatility.
• Notional turnover spiked sharply during the $16.00–16.65 move, aligning with price action for strong conviction.

GMX/USDC opened at $15.1 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $16.22 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The pair reached a high of $16.56 and a low of $14.96, with total volume of 9,337.64 units and notional turnover of $143,274.44 in the last 24 hours. This session was marked by a strong upward move, especially in the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a broad ascending channel following a key breakout from the $15.55–15.65 consolidation range. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged after the $15.55–15.59 reversal, confirming the resumption of the uptrend. A small doji at $16.56 hinted at short-term indecision, while a strong green candle at $16.31–16.41 provided further momentum. The $16.20–16.56 range appears to have acted as a dynamic support turned resistance, with 61.8% Fibonacci levels reinforcing potential pullback targets.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned during the early phase of the rally, but diverged as price accelerated past $16.40, with the 20-period MA rising above the 50-period. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs remained below the current price, indicating a strong short-to-medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line and showed expanding bullish divergence as price surged past $16.40. However, the RSI peaked above 70 during the $16.40–16.56 phase, suggesting overbought conditions and the potential for a short-term correction. A bearish divergence emerged in the RSI after the $16.56 high, with price continuing higher while RSI declined, signaling caution ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear volatility expansion during the $16.00–16.65 phase, with price frequently testing the upper band. This pattern is often associated with high conviction in a trend. Price remained well above the 20-period moving average within the band, but its proximity to the upper boundary raises the possibility of a short-term pullback toward the 16.20–16.35 mid-range for consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the $16.31–16.56 phase, particularly in the $16.50–16.56 range, confirming strong conviction in the move. Notional turnover spiked in tandem, with $143,274.44 traded in the last 24 hours. Divergence appeared between price and volume during the $16.56–16.40 correction, with lower volume on the downside suggesting potential support at $16.31–16.35.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the $14.96–16.56 move aligns with the $15.90–16.00 range, a key area of potential support. Price may retest this zone before resuming the uptrend. On the 15-minute chart, a minor 61.8% level at $16.20 also coincided with the doji formation, suggesting a possible pivot for further buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy emphasizes leveraging bullish divergences in the RSI and MACD during periods of high volume expansion. During the $16.31–16.56 move, these indicators aligned to confirm strong momentum, providing a clear signal for a long entry near $16.35 with a target near $16.55. The strategy could be tested by using Fibonacci retracement levels as dynamic entry/exit points, with stop-loss placed just below key support at $16.20. Given the high volatility and volume, this approach is best suited for short-to-mid-term trend-following positions.