GMT/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• GMT/Tether fell 9.2% in 24 hours, breaking below key support zones and showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the midday sell-off, with turnover surging on weak price action.
• A long bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.0361, signaling possible continuation lower.
• RSI entered oversold territory, but divergence with price suggests potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume and turnover diverged after 19:30 ET, hinting at waning selling pressure and possible stabilization.

GMT/Tether (GMTUSDT) opened at 0.0364 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0275 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0413 and a low of 0.0054. Total volume was 581,155,622.3 and total turnover reached $16,288,119.07 over the 24-hour window. The sharp drop reflects strong bearish pressure and a breakdown in key price levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish breakdown from the 0.0361–0.0365 consolidation range, marked by a long bearish engulfing candle. Price later formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, with no significant bullish rejection patterns. A doji emerged near 0.0275 during early morning hours, suggesting short-term indecision, but failed to spark a reversal. Key support levels are forming around 0.0267 and 0.0240, with resistance at 0.0277 and 0.0285 as potential short-term re-entry points.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages both turned downward sharply after 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.0268 and the 20-period at 0.0271. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period MAs are also bearishly aligned, with the price below both, indicating a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover and diverging histogram, reinforcing the strength of the downtrend. RSI reached oversold levels around 28 during early morning hours, but failed to generate a bullish reversal, indicating a potential false recovery. A failure to break above 40 in the next 24 hours could extend the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been volatile and oscillating between the outer bands, with the 20-period BB widening significantly after the midday sell-off. A recent contraction in the bands near 0.0277–0.0280 suggests a potential resumption of directional movement, either bullish or bearish, depending on the next breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the midday sell-off, with a sharp drop in price following the 0.0353 open at 21:00 ET. However, after 19:30 ET, volume began to decline while price continued to fall, suggesting waning bearish conviction. Turnover also spiked during the 0.0354–0.0165 drop but began to contract later in the session, reinforcing the idea of exhausted sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 0.0364–0.0054 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.0235 and the 61.8% at 0.0284. Price currently sits near the 61.8% level and may test it as a possible short-term floor or pivot point. A break below 0.0235 could trigger a deeper correction toward the 0.0200–0.0210 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 50-period MA, with a stop above the 20-period MA and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This setup was observed around 0.0361–0.0362 and could be tested for entry accuracy, risk-to-reward ratio, and win rate. Integrating RSI divergence could add a filter for false breakouts, improving signal quality.