GLP-1 Drugs and Global Access: Investment Implications of WHO’s Essential Medicines Listing

The World Health Organization’s (WHO) recent inclusion of like semaglutide (Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic) and tirzepatide (Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro) in its Essential Medicines List marks a seismic shift in the global pharmaceutical landscape. This move, aimed at addressing the , has profound implications for market access, pricing, and long-term profitability for industry giants. Let’s break down what this means for investors.

The WHO’s Strategic Move: A

By designating as essential for diabetes management in patients with comorbidities like cardiovascular disease and obesity, the WHO is signaling their critical role in [1]. This inclusion could accelerate adoption in , where access to these has been limited by cost. According to a report by Reuters, the WHO’s decision is expected to incentivize generic production as patents expire, particularly in regions where affordability is a barrier [2]. However, the high prices of these drugs—often exceeding $1,000 per month in the U.S.—remain a sticking point, even as the WHO underscores the need for [3].

For investors, the key question is: How will this regulatory milestone reshape the between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly?

Patent Fortresses: Novo’s and Lilly’s

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have built robust to defend their GLP-1 empires. Semaglutide’s core compound patent expires in 2031, but the company has filed 320 U.S. patent applications, extending exclusivity until 2042 through follow-on patents covering delivery devices and formulations [1]. Similarly, tirzepatide’s main patent expires in 2036, with extensions pushing exclusivity to 2041 [1]. These strategies create a “” that deters generic competition, ensuring pricing power for years to come.

Data from Drug Patent Watch , . Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound (tirzepatide) has outperformed Wegovy in head-to-head trials, with users losing 47% more weight, solidifying its position as a first-line therapy [5].

: A Distant Threat?

While the WHO’s listing may pressure regulators to lower prices in emerging markets, . , . In , , , . In the . and , , .

, driven by expanding indications (e.g., , . This growth trajectory, , .

: Growth vs.

For , . On one hand, . On the other, .

, with its dominant market share and extended exclusivity, appears better positioned to weather these challenges. , , , . , while slightly behind in patent duration, , .

The : Buy, , or ?

The WHO’s inclusion is a regulatory win for GLP-1 innovators, but it also underscores the tension between profitability and access. For now, . However, . and EU, where cost pressures could intensify.

If you’re looking to capitalize on the , . These companies are not just selling drugs; they’re selling a solution to a global health crisis. And in this market, .

**Source:[1] The Heavy Price of GLP-1 Drugs [https://www.i-mak.org/glp-1/][2] WHO Adds GLP-1s to Essential Medicines List [https://www.pharmexec.com/view/who-adds-glp-1s-essential-medicines-list][3] Affordable access to GLP-1 obesity medications [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12403326/][4] Compounding Inequities Through Drug IP and Unfair Competition [https://wustllawreview.org/2024/12/06/compounding-inequities-through-drug-ip-and-unfair-competition/][5] Zepbound on Track to Transform 2025's Healthcare Landscape [https://www.nfp.com/insights/zepbound-on-track-to-transform-2025-healthcare-landscape/]