Global Risk-On Sentiment and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies in 2025
The interplay between global risk-on sentiment and macroeconomic stabilization has become a defining feature of 2025's investment landscape. As central banks grapple with inflationary pressures and trade policy uncertainties, tactical asset allocation strategies in equities and emerging markets are increasingly shaped by a delicate balance of optimism and caution. This article synthesizes insights from leading institutions—including J.P. Morgan, State StreetSTT--, and BlackRock—to dissect the evolving dynamics and their implications for investors.
The Current State of Global Risk-On Sentiment
Global risk appetite has shown resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds. J.P. Morgan's Q3 2025 Global Asset Allocation report highlights a “modestly long-risk” stance, with allocations concentrated in U.S. tech and communication services, alongside regional overweights in Japan, Hong Kong, and emerging markets [1]. This optimism is underpinned by the expectation that U.S. inflation will peak at year-end (core CPI projected at 3.8% in 4Q 2025) and moderate through 2026, enabling a gradual easing of monetary policy [1].
State Street's September 2025 tactical asset allocation report echoes this cautious optimism, noting improved investor risk appetite driven by clearer fiscal and trade policies [3]. The firm has increased exposure to risk assets, including a meaningful overweight in equities and commodities, while reducing European equity allocations due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions [3]. However, fixed-income positioning remains defensive, with the firm anticipating higher interest rates and modest yield curve steepening amid inflation concerns [3].
Macroeconomic Stabilization: Inflation, Labor Markets, and Trade Policy
Macroeconomic stabilization efforts have been uneven. U.S. inflation remains mixed, with core CPI at 3.1% YoY in September 2025, driven by sector-specific pressures such as tariff-induced price increases in food and dental services [1]. Meanwhile, labor market data has turned troubling, with average monthly job gains of just 71,000 from April 2024 to March 2025—well below pre-pandemic norms [1]. This has raised the possibility of a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, with some analysts projecting 100 basis points of easing in 2025 [1].
Globally, central banks are adopting divergent approaches. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates in September 2025, while the European Central Bank has concluded its tightening cycle, signaling that current policy rates are appropriate [1]. These divergences underscore the fragmented nature of macroeconomic stabilization, complicating asset allocation decisions.
Tactical Asset Allocation: Equities, Emerging Markets, and Credit
The tactical allocation landscape is characterized by a focus on quality, regional diversification, and sectoral specialization. J.P. Morgan's preference for U.S. tech and communication services reflects the sector's resilience amid trade uncertainties and its role as a driver of long-term growth [1]. The firm also favors emerging markets and Japan, citing structural reforms and currency tailwinds as catalysts for outperformance [1].
BlackRock's midyear 2025 outlook emphasizes the need for “resilient equity portfolios” built through active stock selection, particularly in sectors like AI and consumer staples . The firm warns that volatility will remain the new normal, urging investors to prioritize quality and diversification over macroeconomic forecasts .
In fixed income, J.P. Morgan and State Street highlight opportunities in ex-U.S. sovereign bonds (e.g., Italian BTPs, UK Gilts) and high-yield credit, which offer relative value amid a flattening yield curve [1][3]. However, both firms caution against overexposure to duration, given the risk of further rate hikes in response to persistent inflation [3].
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty Through Tactical Flexibility
The 2025 investment environment demands a nuanced approach to tactical asset allocation. While global risk-on sentiment has rebounded, macroeconomic stabilization remains fragile, with trade policy shifts and labor market weakness posing ongoing risks. Investors are advised to adopt a dual strategy: overweighting high-conviction sectors like U.S. tech and emerging markets while maintaining defensive positions in credit and ex-U.S. duration. As BlackRockBLK-- notes, volatility will create buying opportunities for fundamentally sound stocks, but only for those who remain disciplined in their focus on quality and diversification .
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