Global Payments (NYSE:GPN): A Bullish Investment Perspective

Global Payments Inc. (NYSE: GPN) has been making waves in the payments industry, and investors are taking notice. With a market cap of over $43 billion, GPN has proven its resilience and growth potential. This article explores the bullish thesis on GPN, highlighting its strong business segments, strategic focus, and potential for future growth.
GPN's Merchant Solutions segment is a key driver of its success. The segment boasts impressive customer retention, with North American customers using GPN's services for an average of 6.6 years. This longevity, coupled with a 5% growth in revenue and a reasonable market position in the Issuer Solutions segment, underscores the company's resilience and growth potential.

GPN's Issuer Solutions segment also plays a pivotal role in its growth and profitability. This segment offers solutions that enable financial institutions and retailers to manage their card portfolios through a platform, along with commercial payments, account payables, and electronic payment alternatives solutions for businesses and governments. In the third quarter of 2024, GPN's adjusted net revenue increased by 6% to $2.36 billion, with the Issuer Solutions segment contributing significantly to this growth. The segment's adjusted operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 46.1%, demonstrating its efficiency and profitability.

GPN's strategic focus on efficiency and disposal of non-strategic businesses has significantly impacted its financial performance. The company's new CEO, Cameron Bready, has implemented positive changes, including the disposal of non-strategic businesses and a focus on efficiency. This strategic shift has contributed to a substantial increase in the company's market cap, from $28.44 billion in 2024 to $43.94 billion in 2025, indicating a 54% increase. Additionally, the company's enterprise value has grown from $43.94 billion in 2024 to $65.32 billion in 2025, reflecting a 48% increase.

GPN's strong business segments adapt to economic shifts and maintain resilience. Despite recent management issues, the company's Merchant Solutions segment boasts high customer retention, with North American customers using GPN's services for an average of 6.6 years. This stability is particularly notable in less sensitive areas, where GPN faces less competition from new players like Adyen and Stripe. Additionally, the Issuer Solutions segment maintains a 5% growth in revenue and a reasonable market position, indicating further successful development.

The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis and the bearish model price targets contribute to the bullish thesis on GPN. The SOTP analysis suggests a base case price target of $145, a substantial 53% above its current price. This analysis indicates that the company's intrinsic value is significantly higher than its current market valuation. Additionally, the bearish model offers a price prediction of $83, reflecting a 13% downside risk. The discrepancy between these price targets highlights the potential for significant upside in GPN's stock price, further bolstering the bullish case.
In conclusion, Global Payments (NYSE: GPN) presents a compelling investment opportunity. Its strong business segments, strategic focus on efficiency, and potential for future growth make it an attractive choice for investors seeking a reliable income stream. With a market cap of over $43 billion and a history of resilience and adaptability, GPN is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for payment processing services. As the company continues to execute its strategic plan and expand its offerings, investors can expect to see further growth and value creation.