La Convergencia de las Políticas Mundiales de Vivienda: Trump, Xi, y los Riesgos de las Políticas Institucionales Antivivienda

The global housing market is undergoing a seismic shift as populist leaders in the United States and China adopt anti-institutional housing policies to address affordability crises. President Donald Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes mirrors President Xi Jinping's long-standing mantra that "houses are built to be inhabited, not for speculation." While these policies aim to curb speculative investment and prioritize residential needs, their economic and investment risks are profound, with systemic implications for global markets.

Trump's Populist Housing Agenda: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump's campaign to restrict institutional investors from buying single-family homes has drawn bipartisan support, reflecting growing public frustration over rising rents and housing shortages. However, the economic impact of such a ban remains contentious. Institutional investors own only 2%-4% of the U.S. single-family rental market, suggesting the policy may have limited direct effects on prices. Critics argue that the ban could destabilize the build-to-rent (BTR) sector, which relies on institutional capital to fund new construction. This could exacerbate the existing housing supply shortage, particularly in high-cost markets already constrained by land use regulations.

Compounding these risks are Trump's proposed tariffs on construction materials like lumber, copper, and steel, which could add $17,500 to the cost of building a new home. According to a report, these tariffs could result in 450,000 fewer homes being constructed over the next five years, further straining an already fragile market. Such measures risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: higher costs and reduced supply could drive prices upward, undermining the policy's affordability goals.

Xi's Housing Crackdown: A Systemic Crisis in the Making

In China, Xi's 2020 "three red lines" policy, designed to curb borrowing by property developers, has triggered a cascading crisis in the real estate sector. This sector, which contributed up to 30% of China's GDP, has seen a 30% default rate in offshore USD-denominated bonds, erasing $50 billion in value. The collapse of firms like Evergrande and Fantasia Holdings has exposed the fragility of a market built on overborrowing and overbuilding.

Xi's emphasis on "housing for living" has also led to stringent regulations, including over 400 new rules to restrict speculative demand and mortgage lending. While these measures aim to stabilize prices, they have inadvertently reduced property affordability for ordinary citizens, with primary market sales dropping 30% in two months. The sector's distress now poses a deflationary threat to China's broader economy, with household wealth-60% of which is tied to real estate-under pressure.

Global Investment Risks: Cross-Border Spillovers and Systemic Vulnerabilities

The convergence of Trump and Xi's policies has created ripple effects in global private markets. Chinese real estate investment in the U.S., which surged after 2008 as domestic capital controls tightened, has become a focal point of concern. A Boston Fed study notes that Chinese capital inflows drove a 30-fold increase in U.S. real estate transaction values by 2013, boosting local employment but displacing lower-income residents. Anti-institutional policies in both countries now threaten to disrupt these cross-border flows, with regulators in the UK and elsewhere calling for stricter oversight of opaque investment structures.

Systemic risks are further amplified by the interconnectedness of global markets. China's real estate crisis has triggered a liquidity crunch, with developers facing technical defaults and construction halts. If this deepens, it could trigger a broader economic contraction, given the sector's outsized role in GDP and employment. Meanwhile, Trump's trade policies-coupled with China's pivot toward self-sufficiency- have forced multinational firms to reconfigure supply chains, increasing costs and reducing flexibility.

Conclusion: Navigating the New Housing Policy Landscape

For investors, the populist housing policies of Trump and Xi represent a dual-edged sword. While they aim to democratize access to housing, their unintended consequences-reduced construction incentives, market volatility, and systemic risks-pose significant challenges. The U.S. and Chinese markets are no longer isolated; their policy convergence has created a web of interdependencies that demand careful navigation.

As 2026 unfolds, investors must monitor how these policies evolve and their secondary effects on global capital flows. The key lies in balancing short-term affordability goals with long-term market stability, ensuring that populist reforms do not inadvertently deepen the very crises they seek to resolve.