Glapinski says projection to show inflation in target in 2026

Glapinski says projection to show inflation in target in 2026

Polish Central Bank Projects Inflation to Remain in Target Range in 2026

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has reaffirmed its confidence that inflation will remain within its target range of 2.5% (±1 percentage point) throughout 2026, according to Governor Adam Glapiński's January 2026 press conference. This assessment reflects a durable decline in inflationary pressures, driven by lower energy prices, reduced food costs, and slowing wage growth.

Domestically, inflationary risks have diminished as service-sector price increases have moderated. Globally, disinflationary trends—including falling crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as increased imports of low-cost goods from China— have further supported Poland's favorable inflation outlook. Glapiński emphasized that these factors, combined with rising productivity, position Poland as a regional leader in disinflation, with inflation rates lower than those of other Central and Eastern European economies that have adopted the euro.

Economic growth remains robust, with Poland's real GDP in Q3 2025 reaching 17% above pre-pandemic levels. The NBP projects continued strong expansion through 2027, supported by EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funding and improving domestic demand. December 2025 data showed GDP growth of 3.6%, alongside improved retail sales and manufacturing output.

Monetary policy remains dovish, with the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) open to further rate cuts. While the reference rate was held at 4.00% in January 2026, Glapiński indicated that a 25-basis-point reduction could occur in March, contingent on incoming data. The MPC aims to bring the target rate to 3.50% by year-end, balancing inflation control with growth support.

Upside risks to inflation remain limited, though not nonexistent, with Glapiński noting potential challenges from fiscal imbalances and demand pressures. However, the central bank's focus has shifted to "fine-tuning" policy, reflecting growing confidence in sustained disinflation. Investors should monitor MPC meetings for adjustments as 2026 unfolds.

Think.ING, January 2026 press conference analysis.
Polish Radio, January 2026 governor's remarks.
NBP inflation and growth outlook.
PAP, December 2025 economic data.