Gilead Plummets Over 3%—What’s Driving the Crisis?

• GILD slumps to $110.24, down 3.75% intraday amid FDA trial halts and legal scrutiny
• Pomerantz Law Firm’s HIV trial investigation triggers $4.30 selloff since June 10
• Institutional buyers including SteelPeak and Xponance added 142,000+ shares Q1
• Options activity spikes with $156k turnover in July-expiring puts at $107 strike

Gilead Sciences’ dramatic $4 drop from its $114.54 open marks a pivotal moment for the biopharma leader, as investors grapple with regulatory risks and technical pressures. The stock now trades near critical $105 support after hitting an intraday low of $109.45, while sector peers like Pfizer (PFE) show muted -0.54% declines.

FDA Hold on HIV Trial Sparks Regulatory Crisis
Gilead’s plunge stems directly from the FDA’s June 10 clinical hold on its GS-1720/GS-4182 HIV trials, which revealed CD4+ T-cell declines in participants. This safety signal not only halted enrollment but also triggered a Pomerantz Law Firm investigation into potential misrepresentations. The dual threat of delayed pipeline progress and potential litigation costs has eroded investor confidence, with the stock now trading 13% below its 52-week high of $119.96. Analysts highlight the trial’s critical role in Gilead’s next-gen HIV franchise, which faces pressure from declining remdesivir sales and competition in the PrEP market.

Bearish Bias Rules—Top Puts and Calls for the FDA Crossroads
RSI: 71.0 (Overbought)
Bollinger Bands: Hugs lower band ($105.33)
MACD: Bullish crossover (1.34 vs 0.96)

Traders should focus on $111.61-78 resistance and $105.33 support. Aggressive bears should target GILD20250718P107 (Put) at $0.10 premium offering 157.65% leverage. This contract has delta -0.17 (sensitive to downside), gamma 0.06 (volatility beneficiary), and strong liquidity ($156k turnover). For contrarians, GILD20250718C104 (Call) at $0.77 provides 14.37% leverage with delta 0.795 (bullish slope) and gamma 0.032 (moderate gamma).

In a 5% downside scenario to $104.73:
- P107 Put payoff: $2.27 (max $7 profit)
- C104 Call payoff: $0.73 (max $1 profit)
Bearish momentum favors puts below $110, but buyers should wait for a bounce above $112. Action Insight: Fade rallies until FDA resolves GS-1720 safety concerns.

Backtest Gilead Sciences Stock Performance
The performance of GILD after a -4% intraday plunge has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data reveals that:1. Frequency of Events: The event occurred 603 times over the past five years.2. Short-Term Gains: The 3-day win rate is 49.92%, indicating that approximately half of the time, the stock price recovered and gained within 3 days. The average 3-day return was 0.17%.3. Medium-Term Gains: The 10-day win rate is higher at 55.06%, suggesting a greater likelihood of recovery within 10 days. The average 10-day return was 0.65%.4. Long-Term Gains: The 30-day win rate is 55.89%, which is similar to the 10-day win rate, indicating a strong likelihood of recovery over a longer period. The average 30-day return was 1.48%.5. Maximum Returns: The stock experienced a maximum return of 3.11% during the backtest period, which occurred on day 59 after the intraday plunge.In conclusion, while there is no guarantee of a positive return in any specific instance, historical data suggests that GILD tends to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the short to medium term following a -4% intraday plunge.

Watch the FDA Deadline—Bears Target $105, Bulls Fight for $114
Gilead’s fate hinges on FDA communication by mid-July. Bears target $105.33 Bollinger Band support while bulls aim to reclaim $114.50 close. With Pfizer (PFE) -0.54% leading a cautious sector, traders must prioritize risk management. Aggressive puts at $107 strikes offer short-term volatility plays, but a sustainable rebound requires positive trial updates. Investors should monitor Zacks’ B Momentum Score and institutional buying patterns—this is a high-stakes week for one of biopharma’s most volatile stocks.