Tensión geopolítica en aumento: evaluación de la resistencia del sector de la defensa y de la volatilidad del mercado

The conflict escalation sparked immediate, sharp market reactions across asset classes, revealing clear risk-on and risk-off flows as investors digested the shifting geopolitical landscape. Defense equities initially surged on heightened preparedness spending expectations, with RTX stock climbing sharply shortly after the escalation news. Conversely, the travel sector suffered an immediate and sharp decline, reflecting heightened concerns about business and leisure travel disruptions amid rising regional tensions.

Oil prices experienced extreme volatility, spiking nearly 10% higher on the opening bell before collapsing over 7% later in the day as de-escalation signals emerged. This whipsaw highlighted the market's rapid reassessment of both supply risk and economic demand fears. The broader equity market ultimately reflected this uncertainty, closing down slightly by 0.56% as the S&P 500 index reflected the mixed sentiment across sectors, with defensive plays offering limited shelter during the turbulence.

The initial surge in defense stocks like RTX was a direct reaction to the perceived immediate need for increased military capability deployment.

. However, the subsequent drop in oil prices, triggered by de-escalation hopes, underscores how quickly event-driven narratives can reverse, leaving volatile short-term positions exposed. While the travel sector's decline suggests persistent demand fragility in sensitive regions, the sharp oil price reversal cautions against assigning lasting momentum to either the initial spike or plunge, given how quickly sentiment shifted. Investors should note that such abrupt regime changes often lead to whipsawing rather than sustained trends until clearer policy actions or conflict outcomes emerge.

Defense Sector Sustainability Analysis

The defense rally sparked by Middle East escalation faces real durability questions, as geopolitical shocks often boost stocks without guaranteeing lasting earnings. RTX surged on hopes of higher Pentagon spending, but the lack of a direct Pentagon response and potential funding gaps cast doubt on the durability of these gains. While the risk premium is real, investors should watch for concrete procurement plans rather than headline-driven rallies.

Energy stocks rose 3% as investors hedged against supply risks from Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz threats. But the sector remains exposed: energy prices have jumped over 10% in June, and any prolonged disruption could reignite inflation pressures.

Safe-haven assets gained ground, with gold up 1.8% and U.S. treasuries rallying as markets rotated out of equities. Yet this temporary shelter faces headwinds; markets have shown resilience with inflation easing and supply chains absorbing shocks, suggesting these flows may fade if the conflict de-escalates quickly.

The takeaway: defense earnings from this shock may be short-lived without budget specifics, energy gains are fragile without sustained supply constraints, and safe-havens serve as a hedge but not a long-term store of value.

Supply Chain and Funding Vulnerabilities

Recent Middle East hostilities have exposed fresh fractures in global energy supply chains. Confirmed oil prices surged over 10% in June 2025, directly triggered by strikes on Iranian infrastructure and persistent threats to the Strait of Hormuz. While energy equities rose 3% as a hedge, this price spike created immediate frictions: higher input costs for manufacturers and consumers, and a de-risking shift into bonds and commodities. The earlier oil price surge highlighted how quickly supply chain fragility can translate into broad economic headwinds.

Defense procurement faces significant regulatory uncertainty amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Defense stocks, like RTX, rallied sharply after the large-scale Israel-Iran conflict, but the Pentagon's direct response remained unspecified. This ambiguity around official policy actions and diplomatic resolutions creates a key risk: planned defense contracts could face delays or funding reallocations if larger budget gaps emerge. Unresolved diplomatic deadlocks, as noted in the market reaction, compound this uncertainty for defense firms.

Funding sustainability becomes a critical watchpoint if military spending pressures exceed allocated resources. Markets demonstrated resilience despite oil price spikes and Middle East tensions, largely due to easing inflation and better-equipped energy supply chains absorbing shocks. However, this resilience has limits. If sustained conflict forces prolonged defense spending surges beyond current allocations, the risk emerges that fiscal balances could tighten, potentially crowding out other government spending or forcing higher borrowing costs. The dollar's stabilization after a three-year low shows current buffers, but exceeding thresholds could strain this position.