Riesgos y oportunidades geopolíticas en América Latina en el contexto de la Doctrina Monroe y la expansión de China

Latin America stands at a crossroads as the U.S. and China vie for influence through competing strategies of infrastructure and energy investment. The emergence of the "Donroe Doctrine"-a modernized Monroe Doctrine articulated by the Trump administration-has redefined U.S. engagement in the region, prioritizing military assertiveness and economic exclusion of rivals like China. Meanwhile, Beijing's deepening investments in energy and critical infrastructure have created both opportunities and vulnerabilities for host nations. For investors, the interplay of these dynamics presents a complex landscape of risks and rewards.

The Donroe Doctrine: U.S. Strategy and Its Implications

The Donroe Doctrine, as outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy, seeks to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere by excluding non-hemispheric powers from controlling strategic assets. This framework has manifested in direct interventions, such as the 2026 military operation in Venezuela, which targeted the country's oil infrastructure to redirect its energy exports toward U.S. allies and corporations. The administration has also pressured Latin American governments to phase out Chinese investments in projects like Peru's Chancay port and Brazil's energy transmission networks.

A key pillar of this strategy is securing access to critical minerals. Latin America's vast reserves of lithium, copper, and rare earth elements are essential for U.S. technological and military capabilities. The Trump administration has incentivized domestic and allied companies to invest in these resources while discouraging Chinese involvement through sanctions and diplomatic pressure. However, this approach risks destabilizing regional economies, as seen in Venezuela, where U.S. actions have disrupted energy flows and deepened economic crises.

China's Energy and Infrastructure Expansion: A Dual-Edged Sword

China's investments in Latin America's energy sector have grown exponentially since 2000, with trade between the region and China exceeding $518 billion by 2025. Chinese firms now control significant portions of electricity infrastructure in countries like Peru and Brazil, where they hold stakes in transmission and distribution networks. This strategic shift from construction to long-term ownership has allowed Beijing to secure access to natural resources while embedding itself in regional supply chains.

For example, in Venezuela, Chinese state loans totaling nearly $60 billion have been tied to oil and infrastructure projects, creating a dependency that the U.S. intervention has sought to dismantle. Similarly, in Brazil, Chinese companies manage 12% of the country's electricity transmission, positioning them to influence energy transitions as Latin America pivots toward renewables. While these investments offer financing for much-needed infrastructure, they also raise concerns about debt sustainability and national sovereignty. Critics warn of "debt-trap diplomacy", where host countries may be forced to cede strategic assets to service obligations.

Geopolitical Tensions and Investment Risks

The clash between U.S. and Chinese strategies has heightened geopolitical risks for investors. The Donroe Doctrine's emphasis on unilateral military action and economic coercion-such as tariffs on non-compliant nations-has strained relations with Latin American governments, many of which fear a return to "gunboat diplomacy". Meanwhile, China's growing influence has prompted U.S. allies to reassess their partnerships, creating a polarized environment where countries must choose between aligning with Washington or Beijing according to analysis.

For instance, Brazil's energy strategy, which balances fossil fuel exports with renewable investments, has given it leverage in navigating these tensions. However, the U.S. military incursion in Venezuela has disrupted regional trade dynamics, complicating supply chains and increasing uncertainty for investors in energy and critical minerals. Additionally, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's focus on securing domestic supply chains may further marginalize Latin American producers, who face barriers to accessing U.S. markets.

Opportunities in a Shifting Landscape

Despite these risks, Latin America remains a critical arena for long-term investment. The region's energy transition- projected to require $70 billion in annual clean energy spending by 2025-offers opportunities for firms capable of navigating geopolitical complexities. China's expertise in solar technology and grid infrastructure positions it to lead in renewable projects, while U.S. companies may benefit from partnerships with governments seeking to reduce Chinese influence according to analysis.

Critical minerals present another avenue. Latin America's lithium deposits, particularly in Argentina and Chile, are vital for battery production, and U.S. subsidies for domestic firms could incentivize investment in the region. However, investors must weigh the potential for U.S. military interventions and the volatility of political alliances against the long-term value of these resources.

Conclusion: Navigating a Fragile Equilibrium

The Donroe Doctrine and China's expansion are reshaping Latin America's geopolitical and economic landscape. For investors, the region offers high-reward opportunities in energy and infrastructure but demands careful navigation of political risks. The U.S. strategy of exclusion and coercion contrasts with China's integration-focused investments, creating a volatile environment where stability is elusive. As the 2025 National Security Strategy underscores, the U.S. aims to "restore American preeminence" in the hemisphere, but this ambition may come at the cost of regional development and multilateral cooperation.

Investors must balance the allure of strategic assets with the realities of geopolitical competition. Diversification, local partnerships, and a nuanced understanding of host-country policies will be essential in mitigating risks while capitalizing on the region's potential. In a Latin America increasingly defined by great-power rivalry, the path to sustainable returns lies in adaptability and foresight.