Geopolitical De-Risking: Assessing Investment Opportunities in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa Amid Emerging Peace Processes

In 2025, the interplay between geopolitical de-risking and emerging peace processes in North and Sub-Saharan Africa is reshaping investment landscapes. As conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan persist, strategic asset allocation is increasingly tied to stability-driven frameworks. This article examines how peace processes, while fragile, are unlocking opportunities in infrastructure, mining, and agriculture, while also highlighting the risks that demand nuanced risk-mitigation strategies.

Geopolitical De-Risking and Sector-Specific Opportunities

Infrastructure: The DRC's 2025 peace agreement, brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, has drawn attention to the potential for infrastructure development in eastern regions. Despite skepticism over ceasefire adherence, the UN's emphasis on regional economic integration has spurred interest in road networks and energy projects. For instance, the EBRD and EU's Vision of Humanity's 2025 report highlights improving post-conflict stability in countries like Kenya and Nigeria. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are emerging as critical tools to de-risk long-term projects, with the EBRD and EU's program aiming to mobilize €300 billion in sustainable investments by 2027.

Mining: The DRC's mineral wealth-particularly cobalt and lithium-remains a focal point for global supply chains. However, the M23 rebellion's control over key mining areas has complicated operations. Geopolitical de-risking here involves not only military stability but also regulatory reforms. The G7 Critical Minerals Fund is redirecting capital toward African projects with transparent governance frameworks. For example, Rwanda's role in brokering the DRC peace deal has positioned it as a strategic partner for mining investments, though its involvement in regional tensions remains a risk, according to an FPRI analysis.

Agriculture: Post-mining land reclamation projects in countries like Ghana and South Africa are transforming degraded areas into agricultural hubs. These initiatives align with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals and offer dual benefits of food security and economic diversification. In CAR, where climate change exacerbates resource competition, agribusiness investments are being paired with conflict-resolution mechanisms to address root causes of instability, as Vision of Humanity notes.

Risk-Mitigation Frameworks and Asset Allocation Strategies

Investors must balance the allure of high-growth sectors with the volatility of emerging markets. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) suggests diversifying across equities, fixed income, and alternatives, but in Africa's context, sector-specific skewness-such as the asymmetry of returns in mining versus agriculture-demands tailored approaches, as a MarketClutch analysis suggests. For instance, infrastructure projects in stable regions like The Gambia (which rose 16 places in the Global Peace Index) may justify higher allocations, while mining in the DRC requires hedging against political risks, as Vision of Humanity observes.

Public institutions are also playing a pivotal role. The EBRD's focus on agribusiness and energy in sub-Saharan Africa underscores the importance of public-private collaboration in de-risking. Similarly, the IMF warns that global borrowing costs and commodity price fluctuations could disrupt recovery, urging investors to prioritize policy-stable countries like Mauritius and Tanzania.

Case Studies: Peace Processes as Catalysts

1. DRC's Goma Ceasefire: The Qatari-brokered EJVM+ verification mechanism has stabilized eastern DRC temporarily, enabling humanitarian aid and limited infrastructure projects. However, M23's demand for political autonomy remains unresolved, highlighting the need for phased investments tied to verified peace milestones, as an FPRI analysis found.
2. CAR's Fragile Stability: Despite ongoing violence by groups like the UPC, CAR's 2023 constitutional reforms and international mediation efforts have attracted EU-backed agribusiness ventures. Investors here must navigate risks from Wagner Group involvement and climate-induced displacement, as Vision of Humanity documents.
3. The Gambia's Rise: As the fourth most peaceful country in Sub-Saharan Africa, The Gambia has become a testbed for PPPs in renewable energy and digital infrastructure. Its success underscores the value of aligning investments with governance reforms, according to Vision of Humanity.

Conclusion

Geopolitical de-risking in Africa is not a binary outcome but a dynamic process requiring adaptive strategies. While peace processes in the DRC, CAR, and other regions offer glimpses of stability, investors must remain vigilant against fragmented conflicts and external pressures like U.S.-China competition. By prioritizing sectors with clear de-risking frameworks-such as infrastructure PPPs, transparent mining ventures, and climate-resilient agriculture-capital can align with both geopolitical stability and long-term growth.