Genmab's Stock Plummets 4.13% Amid Mixed Clinical Trial Results: What's Next for Epcoritamab?

Summary
• Genmab (GMAB) plunges 4.13% to $32.45, hitting an intraday low of $30.88 amid conflicting trial data.
• Epcoritamab shows improved progression-free survival in DLBCL but misses statistical significance in overall survival.
• Sector peers like Amgen (AMGN) edge up 0.31%, highlighting biotech sector divergence.

Genmab’s sharp intraday decline reflects investor jitters over mixed clinical data for its flagship bispecific antibody. While epcoritamab demonstrated a 26% reduction in disease progression risk in relapsed DLBCL, the lack of statistically significant overall survival gains has triggered a sell-off. The stock’s 4.13% drop—its lowest since January 2023—underscores the market’s sensitivity to late-stage trial nuances in high-risk biotech.

Epcoritamab’s Mixed Signals Trigger Volatility
Genmab’s 4.13% intraday plunge stems from conflicting outcomes in its Phase 3 EPCORE DLBCL-1 trial. While epcoritamab achieved a 26% improvement in progression-free survival (HR: 0.74) for relapsed DLBCL patients, the overall survival (OS) metric—HR: 0.96—failed to reach statistical significance. This duality has created uncertainty: investors are weighing whether the PFS benefit alone justifies regulatory pathways or if the OS shortfall signals commercial limitations. AbbVie’s partnership adds complexity, as the drug’s approval fate now hinges on Genmab’s ability to navigate regulatory discussions and leverage ongoing trials like EPCORE DLBCL-2.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technical Levels
• 200-day average: 25.81 (well below current price)
• RSI: 50.63 (neutral, suggesting consolidation)
• MACD: 0.73 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: 0.595 (supporting trend)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $32.45 near lower band ($30.64), indicating oversold territory

Genmab’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from key support levels. The 200-day MA at $25.81 remains a critical floor, while the RSI hovering near 50 implies no immediate overbought/oversold extremes. The MACD’s positive divergence and Bollinger Bands’ compression hint at a possible short-term reversal. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• GMAB20260220P30 (Put, $30 strike, Feb 20 expiration):
- IV: 51.37% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: -0.28 (moderate sensitivity to price drops)
- Theta: -0.0128 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0648 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 7,527 (strong liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 32.35% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $2.45 (max(0, 30.83 - 30))
This put option offers a balanced risk-reward profile, capitalizing on potential short-term volatility while benefiting from high gamma to amplify gains if the stock breaks below $30.

• GMAB20260515C35 (Call, $35 strike, May 15 expiration):
- IV: 38.77% (reasonable volatility)
- Delta: 0.428 (moderate sensitivity to price rises)
- Theta: -0.0159 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0546 (solid sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 9,525 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 16.18% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0 (max(0, 30.83 - 35))
This call option is ideal for bullish investors expecting a rebound above $35, leveraging high gamma to capitalize on potential upside momentum. However, its delta suggests limited downside protection.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider GMAB20260515C35 into a bounce above $35, while cautious bears should eye GMAB20260220P30 for a breakdown below $30.64.

Backtest Genmab Stock Performance
The GMAB experienced a total of 486 events with an intraday percentage change of less than -4% from 2022 to the present. The backtest results indicate a mixed performance across different time frames:1. Short-Term Performance: The 3-day win rate is 47.94%, meaning that approximately half of the time, the GMAB recovered positively within 3 days. The 10-day win rate is slightly lower at 47.12%, indicating a higher probability of negative returns in the short term.2. Long-Term Performance: The 30-day win rate improves to 48.56%, suggesting that over a longer period, the GMAB has a higher chance of positive returns. The maximum return during the backtest was 1.17%, which occurred on day 54, indicating that while the GMAB can recover from significant drops, the overall performance tends to be modest.

Navigating the Crossroads: Genmab’s Path Forward
Genmab’s 4.13% intraday drop reflects the market’s binary reaction to epcoritamab’s mixed trial results. While the PFS improvement in DLBCL is a regulatory lifeline, the OS shortfall introduces commercial uncertainty. Technicals suggest a potential rebound from the $30.64 support level, but sustained recovery will depend on regulatory clarity and positive data from ongoing trials like EPCORE DLBCL-2. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $25.81 as a critical floor and watch for options activity around the $30–$35 range. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) remains up 0.31%, underscoring biotech’s divergent performance. Act now: Position for a rebound with GMAB20260515C35 or hedge downside risk with GMAB20260220P30.