Genmab (GMAB) Plunges 0.74% as Bearish Trend Intensifies, Key Support Levels at $30.67 and $29.33 Tested

Genmab (GMAB) closed the most recent session down 0.74%, extending a bearish bias observed in recent price action. The stock has exhibited a series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-October, with key support levels emerging at $30.67 and $29.33. Resistance remains anchored near $33.61, where the price has historically struggled to break through. Candlestick patterns such as bearish harami and dark cloud cover suggest continued downward pressure, while a potential reversal signal may require confirmation from bullish divergence or a breakout above the $33.61 level.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action for Genmab reflects a bearish trend, characterized by a descending channel and multiple bearish reversal patterns. The 2025-10-06 candlestick shows a bearish body with a long upper wick, indicating rejection at $33.63. Support levels at $30.67 (2025-09-30 low) and $29.33 (2025-09-29 close) are critical for near-term stability. A break below $29.33 could target $28.36 (2025-09-19 low), with Fibonacci retracement levels at $30.46 (61.8%) and $31.00 (50%) acting as potential intermediate supports.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approximately $31.50) and 200-day MA ($31.00) are both above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 100-day MA ($31.20) has recently crossed below the 200-day MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover. A bullish signal may emerge if the price closes above the 50-day MA, but this would require a sustained rally above $32.50 to align with the 50-day and 100-day lines. The 200-day MA remains a critical long-term trendline.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has been negative for several sessions, with the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) crossing below the signal line in late September. This confirms bearish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows the %K line (fast stochastic) below the %D line (slow stochastic), with both lines in oversold territory (below 30). A bullish divergence may form if the price makes a new low while the K line rises, but this requires confirmation. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 28, indicating oversold conditions, though oversold levels can persist in strong downtrends.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has contracted recently, with the price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band ($30.00–$33.00 range). A break above the upper band ($33.63) would signal a potential reversal, while a break below the lower band ($30.00) could trigger increased volatility. The bands have been narrowing since mid-October, suggesting a potential breakout is imminent, though the bearish bias suggests a breakdown is more likely.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has been mixed, with higher volume observed during the 4.48% rally on 2025-10-03 but declining in recent sessions. The 0.74% decline on 2025-10-06 was accompanied by moderate volume (4.7 million shares), indicating weak conviction in the move. Sustained bearish momentum would require increasing volume on lower closes, while a bearish breakdown below $30.00 would need a surge in volume to validate the move.

RSI and Divergence

The RSI (14-period) has remained below 30 since mid-October, signaling oversold conditions. However, in a strong downtrend, prices can stay oversold for extended periods. A bullish divergence may form if the price makes a new low while the RSI rises above 30, but this requires confirmation. The RSI’s 50-period moving average is currently at 29, suggesting further oversold territory is likely unless a reversal occurs.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels between the 2025-09-19 low ($28.36) and 2025-10-03 high ($33.61) include 38.2% at $31.55, 50% at $31.00, and 61.8% at $30.46. A bounce from the 61.8% level ($30.46) would suggest a temporary consolidation, while a break below $28.36 could extend the downtrend to $27.00 (127.2% extension).

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the RSI-based strategy (buying when RSI falls below 30 and exiting when it rises above 70) from 2022 to 2025 yielded 0% returns, significantly underperforming the NASDAQ Composite’s 37.69% return. This highlights the limitations of using RSI alone in trending markets, where oversold conditions can persist without a reversal. The strategy’s failure stems from its inability to capture the broader uptrend in Genmab during periods of consolidation and false signals. Integrating RSI with trend-following indicators (e.g., 50-day MA) or volume analysis could improve alignment with market context. For example, combining RSI oversold signals with a bullish crossover of the 50-day and 100-day MAs might reduce false entries during downtrends.