Genius Sports (GENI) Surges 11.7%: Investor Day Optimism Ignites Bullish Momentum

Summary
• Genius Sports (GENI) surges 11.7% intraday to $11.295, breaking above $11.25 Bollinger Band
• Investor Day unveils $1.2B revenue, $365M EBITDA 2028 targets
• New FanDuel partnership expands GeniusIQ platform into NBA/WNBA broadcasts

Genius Sports' 11.7% intraday rally reflects investor enthusiasm for its 2028 financial roadmap and strategic partnerships. The stock's surge to $11.295—a 11.7% jump from $10.11—has pushed it above key technical levels, with the 200-day MA at $10.76 and 52W high at $13.73 within striking distance. The move follows a high-impact Investor Day presentation and a new partnership with FanDuel Sports Network.

Investor Day Optimism and Strategic Partnerships Drive Sharp Rally
Genius Sports' 11.7% intraday surge stems from two catalysts: its 2028 financial targets and a new partnership with FanDuel Sports Network. The company outlined $1.2B in revenue, $365M in adjusted EBITDA (30% margin), and $220M in free cash flow by 2028—targets CEO Mark Locke called 'already-demonstrated growth.' Simultaneously, the partnership with FanDuel to launch an 'Intelligent Content Platform' across NBA and WNBA broadcasts positions GeniusIQ as a key player in real-time sports advertising. Analysts at Guggenheim raised their price target to $17, citing the 'differentiated, scaled global sport technology platform.'

Interactive Media & Services Sector Rally: Disney (DIS) Gains 0.825% as Sector Aligns with GENI's Momentum
The Interactive Media & Services sector, led by Disney (DIS) with a 0.825% intraday gain, shows alignment with Genius Sports' rally. Disney's modest rise reflects broader media sector optimism, while Genius Sports' 11.7% jump highlights its unique positioning in sports data and advertising. The sector's 0.825% move underscores market confidence in digital sports consumption growth, a theme Genius Sports directly capitalizes on through its GeniusIQ platform.

Options Playbook: Leveraging High-Leverage Calls and Strategic Gamma Exposure
• 200-day MA: $10.76 (below current price) • RSI: 46.85 (neutral) • MACD: -0.38 (bullish crossover potential) • Bollinger Bands: $11.25 upper band (broken) • Gamma: 0.1849 (high sensitivity to price moves)

Genius Sports' technicals suggest a short-term bullish setup with key resistance at $11.575 (intraday high) and support at $10.635 (intraday low). The stock's 11.7% surge has pushed it above the 200-day MA and into overbought territory on RSI, but the MACD histogram's positive divergence hints at momentum continuation. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• GENI20260116C12.5 (Call, $12.5 strike, Jan 16 2026): IV 48.95%, leverage 29.84%, delta 0.326, theta -0.0108, gamma 0.1849, turnover $702,525
- High gamma ensures sensitivity to price moves; moderate delta balances risk/reward
- 5% upside scenario (to $11.86) yields $0.36 payoff (max(0, 11.86-12.5) = $0.36)
- Strong liquidity (turnover $702k) ensures trade execution

• GENI20260417C12.5 (Call, $12.5 strike, Apr 17 2026): IV 53.64%, leverage 10.31%, delta 0.465, theta -0.0067, gamma 0.107, turnover $38,725
- Mid-term time decay (theta -0.0067) suits holding through potential news events
- 5% upside scenario (to $11.86) yields $0.36 payoff (max(0, 11.86-12.5) = $0.36)
- Moderate IV (53.64%) balances cost and volatility

Aggressive bulls should consider GENI20260116C12.5 into a breakout above $11.575, while longer-term holders may target GENI20260417C12.5 for sustained momentum.

Backtest Genius Sports Stock Performance
To run an event-based back-test I first need to know exactly how you want to define the “12 % intraday surge” trigger.Typical definitions are:1. Close-to-close: today’s close ≥ yesterday’s close × 1.12. 2. Intraday high: today’s intraday high ≥ yesterday’s close × 1.12. 3. Open-to-close: today’s close ≥ today’s open × 1.12. Please let me know which definition you’d like to use (or provide a different one). Once that’s clear I’ll extract every date that meets the rule from 1 Jan 2022 to today and run the event back-test for GENI.

Bullish Momentum Intact: Watch for $11.575 Breakout to Validate 2028 Targets
Genius Sports' 11.7% rally reflects strong conviction in its 2028 financial roadmap and strategic partnerships. The stock's break above $11.25 Bollinger Band and proximity to the 52W high of $13.73 suggest momentum could extend. Investors should monitor the $11.575 intraday high as a critical breakout level—clearing this would validate the 2028 targets and open the path to $13.73. Meanwhile, sector leader Disney (DIS) gained 0.825%, reinforcing the media sector's alignment with Genius Sports' growth narrative. Aggressive bulls should target GENI20260116C12.5 if $11.575 breaks, while longer-term holders may build positions in GENI20260417C12.5 for sustained momentum.