Generative AI Adoption: Following in Facebook's Footsteps

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has taken the world by storm, with its capabilities and potential applications capturing the imagination of tech enthusiasts and investors alike. As the technology continues to evolve, one question remains: how will its adoption trajectory compare to that of other transformative technologies? Morgan Stanley has drawn parallels between the growth of generative AI and Facebook, suggesting that the former could follow a similar path to widespread adoption.

In a recent report, Morgan Stanley highlighted the rapid adoption of generative AI, mirroring the growth trajectory of Facebook. A survey conducted in September 2024 revealed that daily usage rates of popular generative AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI among U.S. users remained below double-digits, paralleling Facebook's user engagement in 2009. However, monthly usage rates ranged between 35% to 40%, indicating a significant increase from previous levels. This suggests that generative AI is following a similar adoption curve as Facebook, with initial slow growth followed by rapid expansion.

Several factors contribute to this trend, including the increasing availability of high-quality data, advancements in AI models, and the integration of AI into various aspects of daily life. As generative AI becomes more accessible and user-friendly, its adoption is expected to accelerate, much like Facebook's growth after its initial launch.

However, the generative AI market's growth trajectory differs from that of other transformative technologies such as the internet or smartphones. While the internet and smartphones had more rapid adoption, with internet users reaching 1 billion in 2005, just 10 years after its inception, and smartphone users surpassing 3 billion in 2019, 12 years after the iPhone's launch, generative AI's growth is slower but more stable. This indicates a steady, long-term market expansion, as seen in the Statista forecast, which projects the generative AI market to grow from $44.6 billion in 2023 to $122.8 billion by 2030.



Regulatory and policy environments play a significant role in shaping the adoption and diffusion of generative AI, much like they did for Facebook. As generative AI becomes more prevalent, so do concerns about data privacy and misuse. The EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has already imposed strict rules on data usage, which could hinder the development of generative AI tools. Additionally, data privacy concerns may limit user adoption, as seen in the relatively low double-digit daily usage rates of ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI among U.S. users. To address these concerns, companies like Morgan Stanley have favored homegrown AI solutions, ensuring that data remains within their control and adheres to regulatory standards.

Large tech companies' involvement and investment in generative AI have significantly accelerated its widespread adoption and growth, mirroring Facebook's trajectory. The firm's analysis shows that daily usage rates of popular generative AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, and MetaAI among U.S. users remain below double-digits, similar to Facebook's user engagement in 2009. However, monthly usage rates have increased to between 35% to 40%, indicating a growing interest and adoption of these tools. Tech giants' investments in generative AI, such as Google's digital travel planning tools, are expected to drive further innovation and shift consumer behaviors, shaping the future of this technology and its breadth and depth in commercial applications.

In conclusion, generative AI's adoption trajectory mirrors Facebook's growth, with daily usage rates below double-digits and monthly usage between 35% to 40%. However, the generative AI market's growth is slower but more stable, indicating a steady, long-term market expansion. Regulatory environments and data privacy concerns significantly impact the growth and adoption of generative AI platforms, while large tech companies' involvement and investment accelerate its widespread adoption. As generative AI continues to evolve and integrate into daily life, investors should closely monitor its progress and consider its potential impact on various industries and sectors.