US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate Actual 3.3% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.0%)

US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate Actual 3.3% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.0%)

The US economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2025, with the gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 3.3%, surpassing the forecasted 3.1% and the previously reported 3.0% [1]. This quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) estimate marks a significant turnaround from the first quarter's 0.5% contraction. However, the underlying strength of the rebound remains a subject of debate among analysts.

The GDP report showed a rebound primarily driven by lower imports and consumer spending. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key indicator of private-sector momentum, grew by just 1.2% in the second quarter [1]. This suggests that the private-sector demand, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth, remains weak. Analysts argue that the GDP rebound is more statistical than structural, warning that momentum could fade without more substantial investment and exports [1].

Inflation trends also softened during the second quarter, with the GDP price index rising by 1.9% compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rate decreasing to 2.1% from 3.7% [1]. This easing of inflation pressures supports the Federal Reserve's case for potential rate cuts in the medium term.

For forex markets, the softer core growth and easing inflation reinforce the outlook for Fed dovishness into late 2025. Traders should watch EURUSD near 1.10 for a potential breakout if dollar sentiment turns weaker, while USDJPY could retreat if yields soften further [1]. The USD Index H4 chart indicates a weakening bullish momentum, with price breaking below a rising channel and rejecting previous support, pointing towards a likely downward continuation [1].

Victoria's Secret (VSCO) reported strong Q2 2025 results, exceeding expectations with net sales of $1.459 billion, up 3% year-over-year [2]. The company achieved a 4% increase in comparable sales across both Victoria's Secret and PINK brands, in stores and online channels. However, profitability metrics declined substantially year-over-year, with operating income and net income falling by 34% and 50%, respectively [2].

The company raised its full-year 2025 sales guidance to $6.330-6.410 billion but faces increased tariff headwinds of approximately $100 million. Despite the profit decline, Victoria's Secret demonstrated effective inventory management and strategic promotional activity, raising confidence in their ability to offset tariff pressures [2].

In conclusion, while the US economy showed signs of recovery in the second quarter, concerns about private-sector demand and potential Fed rate cuts remain. Victoria's Secret's strong Q2 results, despite profitability challenges, highlight the resilience of the retail sector in the face of economic headwinds.

References:
[1] https://fbs.com/market-analytics/market-insights/u-s-gdp-rebounds-3-in-q2-but-underlying-demand-stays-weak
[2] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/VSCO/victoria-s-secret-co-reports-second-quarter-2025-0ntt4p0rkk51.html