Libra esterlina/dólar estadounidense: Posicionarse para 2026 entre divergencias en las políticas de los bancos centrales

The GBP/USD pair stands at a pivotal juncture as divergent monetary policy paths between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) shape its trajectory for 2026. With the BoE adopting a cautious approach to rate cuts and the Fed leaning into aggressive dovishness, forex strategists and institutional investors are recalibrating their positioning to capitalize on the widening real rate differential. This analysis explores the strategic implications of these divergent policies, supported by technical and fundamental insights, to guide investors in navigating the evolving GBP/USD landscape.

Policy Divergence: BoE Caution vs. Fed Dovishness

The BoE's December 2025 decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-narrowly supported by a 5–4 vote-reflects its reluctance to overextend easing amid persistent inflation at 3.2% YoY. Governor Andrew Bailey has emphasized that inflation is unlikely to return to the 2% target until mid-2026, signaling a prolonged period of tighter policy compared to the Fed. In contrast, the Fed has already delivered 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025, with markets pricing in a 18.3% probability of an additional cut in January 2026. Political pressures and a cooling labor market are accelerating the Fed's dovish pivot, creating a stark contrast with the BoE's measured approach.

This policy divergence has immediate implications for GBP/USD. The Fed's aggressive easing, combined with the BoE's relative restraint, supports the pound's carry advantage. As of late 2025, the UK's real interest rate differential (3.75% BoE rate vs. projected Fed cuts to 3.00% by mid-2026) provides a tailwind for sterling, with forecasts from Nordea and ING suggesting GBP/USD could reach 1.36 or 1.34 in 2026.

Economic Fundamentals: Stagflation Risks and Dollar Weakness

While the BoE's cautious stance is underpinned by its inflation-targeting mandate, the UK's economic fundamentals remain fragile. Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed to 0.3% QoQ, with inflation peaking at 4% in 2025. The BoE's projections indicate activity will "come close to stalling" in late 2025, raising concerns about stagflation-a combination of high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment. These risks could limit the pound's upside potential, even as the Fed's dovishness weakens the dollar.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has weakened by over 10% in 2025, driven by trade agreements and labor market concerns. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026, with sticky inflation and divergent monetary policies continuing to influence currency movements. The dollar's structural weakness, coupled with the BoE's relative caution, creates a favorable backdrop for GBP/USD, though UK fiscal uncertainty-particularly around the autumn budget-could introduce volatility.

Technical Outlook: Ascending Momentum and Key Levels

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has shown strong momentum in late 2025, trading within an ascending channel above $1.3470 and above the rising 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.3330. The pair's consolidation phase, with RSI easing from overbought levels, suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Key support levels around 1.3400 remain critical, with a break below this threshold potentially triggering a retest of the 1.3200–1.3300 range.

Institutional investor positioning further reinforces the technical bias. Despite the UK's economic challenges, net-long positions in GBP/USD have increased, reflecting confidence in the pair's ability to outperform amid Fed easing. Cross-currency dynamics also highlight sterling's strength, as GBP/USD has surged from $1.24 to near $1.35 over the period, outpacing EUR/USD.

Strategic Positioning: Carry Trade, Hedging, and Institutional Flows

Investors seeking to capitalize on the BoE-Fed divergence can employ several strategies. A carry trade-borrowing in USD and investing in GBP-benefits from the widening real rate differential, though it requires hedging against UK-specific risks such as fiscal shocks or stagflationary pressures. Technical positioning around key levels (e.g., 1.3400 support) offers opportunities for directional bets, particularly if the Fed's dovishness accelerates.

Institutional flows also play a critical role. The COT report and flow of funds data indicate a shift in risk appetite toward higher-carry assets like GBP/USD. As the Fed's easing cycle deepens, institutional investors are likely to rotate into sterling, further reinforcing its strength. However, investors must remain vigilant about BoE policy flexibility, as fiscal constraints-such as delayed autumn budgets-could force the central bank to delay cuts.

Conclusion: Navigating the Divergence

The GBP/USD pair is poised for a dynamic 2026 as the BoE's cautious approach contrasts with the Fed's aggressive dovishness. While the real rate differential and technical momentum favor the pound, UK stagflation risks and fiscal uncertainty introduce headwinds. Investors should adopt a balanced approach, leveraging carry trade opportunities and technical positioning while hedging against domestic shocks. As the Fed's easing cycle unfolds and the BoE navigates its inflation-targeting path, GBP/USD remains a compelling case study in the power of divergent central bank policies.