Gary Black Questions Elon Musk's Take On EV Credit Removal After Tesla Sales Drop In Europe: 'Not Sure How The Math Works'

Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, has raised eyebrows with his recent comments on Elon Musk's stance on the removal of the federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. Black, known for his bullish views on Tesla (TSLA), expressed skepticism about Musk's support for President-elect Donald Trump's plans to scrap the credit, which has been a significant driver of EV adoption and a major tailwind for Tesla. In an interview with CNBC, Black stated, "I'm not sure how the math works for elimination of the EV credit to be bullish. In France, elimination of the EV credit caused Tesla's 2024 volumes to decline -34% YoY. In Germany, the 2024 YoY decline was -41%."

Black's comments come as Tesla faces headwinds in the European market, with sales down 13.7% year-to-date compared to the same period last year. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) data shows that Tesla's sales have been declining in key markets, while the overall EV market has been growing. If Tesla out of the equation, the European EV market is up 1.3% year-to-date.



Musk has previously supported ending EV subsidies, stating during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call that while the impact would be "slight" for Tesla, it could be "devastating" for competitors. However, Black's concerns highlight the potential consequences of removing the tax credit for Tesla's sales and market share. If the federal EV tax credit is eliminated, Tesla's competitors could face significant challenges, potentially leading to a slower pace of EV adoption and a smaller overall EV market in the United States.



In conclusion, Gary Black's comments raise important questions about the potential impact of the removal of the federal EV tax credit on Tesla's sales and market share, as well as the broader EV market in the United States. While Musk has expressed support for the elimination of the credit, Black's concerns highlight the need for a more nuanced understanding of the potential consequences for both Tesla and its competitors. As the debate surrounding the EV tax credit continues, investors and policymakers alike should consider the broader implications for the environment, energy security, and the economy.