Is Gartner's Recent Insider Buying and Buyback a Bottom-Finding Catalyst for Long-Term Value?

In the volatile landscape of technology stocks, Gartner (IT) has emerged as a focal point for investors seeking value amid market uncertainty. Recent insider buying activity and aggressive share repurchases have sparked speculation about whether these moves signal a valuation re-rating or a strategic pivot toward long-term value creation. This analysis evaluates Gartner's financial health, valuation metrics, and risk-adjusted growth potential to determine if the company's recent actions are indeed a catalyst for a bottom-finding rally.

Insider Confidence and Share Buybacks: A Mixed Signal

Gartner's Q3 2025 buyback of $1.05 billion-repurchasing 3.95 million shares-reflects management's conviction in the company's intrinsic value. This follows a significant insider purchase of 43,300 shares by a company director according to market data, contrasting with insider selling of 258,743 shares over the past two years, which netted $117 million. While insider selling could indicate short-term profit-taking, the record buyback and director purchase suggest a broader alignment of interests between leadership and shareholders.

The buyback program, part of an expanded authorization, underscores Gartner's preference for capital returns over dividends. This strategy aligns with its focus on AI-driven innovation, such as the launch of "Ask Gartner," an AI tool designed to enhance client engagement. However, the company's inclusion in the iSTOXX MUTB Global ESG Quality 200 index adds another layer of appeal, potentially attracting ESG-focused investors who prioritize sustainable capital allocation.

Financial Performance: Growth Amid Segment Divergence

Gartner's Q3 2025 revenue of $1.5 billion marked a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by a 5% rise in its Insights segment (formerly Research) to $1.3 billion. Conversely, the Consulting and Conferences segments declined by 3% and 2%, respectively, highlighting structural challenges, in these areas. Despite mixed performance, the company raised its full-year 2025 guidance to $6.475 billion in revenue and $12.65 in adjusted EPS, signaling confidence in its ability to stabilize and grow.

Free cash flow (FCF) remains a critical strength. For the first nine months of 2025, FCF totaled $1.21 billion, with analysts projecting $1.6 billion by 2034. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis suggests Gartner is undervalued by 16.7%, with a fair value of $284.56 per share, implying that the market may not yet fully price in the company's long-term AI-driven growth potential.

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Two PEG Ratios

Gartner's valuation appears contradictory at first glance. Its trailing P/E ratio of 22.0 as of December 2025 is sharply lower than its 10-year average of 130.69, suggesting undervaluation. However, the PEG ratio tells a more nuanced story. A -1.38 PEG ratio, calculated using 12-month EPS growth of -15.93%, indicates declining earnings. Yet, a 0.56 PEG ratio derived from a 5-year EBITDA growth rate of 29.20% suggests the stock is attractively priced relative to long-term growth expectations.

This discrepancy underscores the importance of context. While near-term earnings pressure exists, Gartner's 54.18% EPS growth in the twelve months ending June 2025 and a 44.4% increase in 2024 EPS demonstrate resilience. Analysts project 10.8% annual EPS growth, which, if achieved, could justify a re-rating.

Risk-Adjusted Growth: Debt and Analyst Divergence

Gartner's leverage remains a concern. Its debt-to-equity ratio of 4.95 as of September 2025 far above the Software industry median of 0.2-reflects a high-risk capital structure. While the ratio improved to 4.42 by December 2025, the company's reliance on debt to fund buybacks and operations could amplify downside risk in a rising interest rate environment.

Analyst projections further complicate the outlook. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $275 with an "equal weight" rating, while Goldman Sachs maintained a "buy" rating at $390. This divergence highlights uncertainty about Gartner's ability to navigate segment-specific challenges and sustain AI-driven growth.

Conclusion: A Catalyst for Value, But With Caution

Gartner's recent insider buying and buyback activity, coupled with a DCF-derived fair value of $284.56, suggest that the stock may be approaching a valuation inflection point. The company's focus on AI innovation and ESG alignment positions it to capitalize on long-term trends, while robust FCF generation provides a buffer against near-term volatility.

However, investors must weigh these positives against structural risks, including high leverage and segment-level declines. The mixed analyst outlook and conflicting PEG ratios underscore the need for a risk-adjusted approach. For those with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, Gartner's current valuation and strategic initiatives may present an attractive opportunity. Yet, prudence is warranted until the company demonstrates consistent growth across all segments and reduces its debt burden.