Futu Holdings Drops 3.51% As Technical Indicators Signal Critical Support Test

Futu Holdings (FUTU) concluded the latest trading session at $172.85, registering a 3.51% decline on moderated volume. This pullback follows a two-day rebound attempt, positioning the stock in a critical technical consolidation phase after retreating from its September 10 peak of $192.68. The analysis below employs multiple technical frameworks to evaluate key support/resistance levels, trend dynamics, and probable price trajectories.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal bearish reversal signals. The September 24 bullish marubozu (open $170.37, close $176.46) suggested initial recovery momentum, but the subsequent session formed a shooting star with a long upper wick at $183.66, indicating rejection at resistance. September 26 completed a bearish engulfing pattern, closing below the prior two days’ lows on expanding range. This establishes $183.65–$184.00 as immediate resistance, while the $168.60 low anchors near-term support. A sustained break below $168.60 would expose the critical $166.33 swing low from September 23.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (∼$174) currently caps upside attempts, with the price closing below this level in four of the last five sessions. The converging 100-day ($162) and 200-day SMA ($143) maintain ascending slopes, confirming the longer-term uptrend. However, the persistent inability to reclaim the 50-day SMA suggests weakening medium-term momentum. A death cross formation between the 50-day and 100-day SMAs would intensify bearish pressure if the $166–$168 support zone fails.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) exhibits a bearish trajectory, with the histogram in negative territory since early September and the signal line maintaining downward divergence. This signals sustained selling momentum. Contrastingly, KDJ (9,3,3) shows %K (26.8) and %D (31.4) emerging from oversold territory (<30), suggesting nascent buying interest at current levels. This divergence implies potential short-term stabilization, though MACD’s bearish dominance warrants caution against premature reversal calls.
Bollinger Bands
Price action near the lower band ($169) coincides with tightening bandwidth (20-day BV% at 12.5), indicating declining volatility and potential compression break. The September 23 low of $166.33 briefly breached the lower band, triggering a technical rebound. Current proximity to this band support ($168–$170), coupled with bandwidth contraction, increases the probability of a directional resolution. A close above the 20-day midline ($175) would signal bullish reactivation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution phases (e.g., September 22 decline of -5.77% on 4.01M shares) featured higher volume than accumulation rallies (September 24 gain of +5.61% on 4.15M shares), indicating residual selling pressure. However, the September 26 sell-off occurred on 20% lower volume (3.00M shares) than the preceding downswing, suggesting diminished bearish conviction near support. Breakout confirmation would require volume expansion above the 10-day average (3.45M shares).
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (41.5) resides in neutral territory but shows successive higher lows since oversold conditions on September 23 (RSI 29.7), creating positive divergence against price. This implies weakening downside momentum. While RSI remains below the bearish threshold (50), its recovery trajectory may foreshadow near-term stabilization. Sustained readings above 45 would strengthen reversal prospects.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the dominant uptrend from $85.68 (September 2024 low) to $192.68 (September 2025 high) reveals critical confluences: the 23.6% retracement ($167.42) underpins the current support zone ($166.33–$168.60), aligning with the Bollinger lower band. The 38.2% level ($151.81) offers secondary support should breakdown occur. Upside resistance converges at the 50-day SMA ($174) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent correction ($180.50).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluent support near $167–$168 emerges through Bollinger lower band, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, and volume contraction. The bullish KDJ/RSI divergence against bearish MACD/candlestick signals creates technical conflict, suggesting range-bound consolidation before resolution. A decisive close above $175 (50-day SMA + Bollinger midline) would neutralize bearish pressure, while failure at $166.33 may trigger accelerated selling toward $151–$153 support.