Fusionist/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from $0.491 to $0.469, with bearish momentum intensifying in the latter half of the day.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, while volume surged during the final 6 hours, indicating heightened bearish activity.
• A breakdown below $0.473 marked a key support level, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting increased volatility, with price lingering near the lower band.
• Notable divergence between price and turnover emerged in the late session, hinting at potential exhaustion in the move.

Market Summary

Fusionist/Tether (ACEUSDT) opened at $0.488 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at $0.469 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned $0.491 (high) to $0.461 (low). Total volume reached 891,921.2, with notional turnover of approximately $434,121. The price exhibited a clear bearish trend, with increasing volatility and declining bullish conviction in the second half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending pattern throughout the day, with a breakdown from key support at $0.473 to $0.466–$0.469. Several bearish engulfing candles appeared after 04:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A notable doji at $0.480–$0.481 around 05:00 ET marked a temporary pause, but buyers failed to take control. The structure suggests continued bearish pressure, with potential short-term support at $0.466 and resistance at $0.474.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned below the price, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 late in the session, though it remains to be seen if this signals a potential rebound or continued bearish momentum. MACD remained negative with a narrowing histogram, suggesting weakening bearish momentum but not yet confirming a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 08:00 ET, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty and trading activity. Price spent most of the day near or below the lower band, a classic sign of bearish pressure. The contraction seen earlier in the session (around 02:00 ET) preceded the breakdown move, and the subsequent expansion indicates a continuation of the trend rather than a consolidation phase. Traders may watch for a bounce from the lower band or a break of the 0.461 low.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged in the latter half of the day, especially between 08:00 and 12:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover increased in tandem, though not in proportion to price decline, suggesting that while volume was strong, the price drop may have been driven by larger orders or liquidations. A divergence emerged after 10:00 ET, with price continuing lower while turnover failed to follow through, potentially signaling short-term exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the last 15-minute swing (from $0.49 to $0.466), the 61.8% level aligns with $0.475–$0.476, a critical level that may offer short-term resistance. The 38.2% level sits near $0.482–$0.483, which could serve as a shallow bounce target if buyers re-enter. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace level from the recent high is near $0.466, coinciding with the current price floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band positioning. The strategy triggers a sell signal when the RSI diverges below the 30 threshold while the price is at or below the lower band. In this session, such a signal would have been triggered between 09:00 and 10:00 ET, capturing the downward move with a 4–6% potential reward before 12:00 ET. A stop-loss could have been placed at $0.475 or $0.477, with a take-profit at $0.462–$0.464. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and could be further optimized by incorporating volume confirmation.