El FTSE 100 brilla, pero el impulso de construcción del FTSE 250 ofrece promesas de crecimiento

The FTSE 100 surged 23.1% YTD in 2025, marking its strongest performance since 2009. This rally was powered by gains in precious metals (Fresnillo), financials (Lloyds), and defense stocks (Babcock and Rolls-Royce), with rising gold and silver prices adding momentum. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 trailed with an 11.9% gain, as smaller, domestically focused companies struggled. The divergence underscores how overseas revenue exposure can amplify leadership during global-driven cycles, though the FTSE 250's weaker domestic positioning remains a structural headwind.

FTSE 250's Contrasting Trajectories

The FTSE 250 index captured a sharp economic divergence within the UK's smaller companies. While the broader index rose 28% through July, it then retreated 5% as the domestic economy slowed under the weight of higher interest rates and rising wage costs. This pattern revealed stark sectoral splits driven by exposure to macro forces.

Construction firms exemplified the growth pockets. Morgan Sindall surged 72% and Keller Group climbed 60%, fueled by government infrastructure spending. The surge wasn't just domestic; North American expansion provided a significant growth engine for these firms. This dual exposure to robust public investment and international markets created a powerful tailwind.

Meanwhile, domestic-focused recruitment stocks faced headwinds. Firms like SThree and Hays fell over 30%, pressured directly by persistent wage inflation. Their revenue models proved vulnerable to the UK's tight labour market dynamics, contrasting sharply with the construction sector's government-backed stability.

This divergence underscores a broader structural challenge: 55% of FTSE 250 revenues remain overseas. While international exposure helped firms like Currys rebound through improved margins, it also left others, such as Genus and Dowlais, vulnerable when tied to weaker Chinese markets. This global footprint creates both opportunity and complexity for recovery.

The performance split highlights how smaller caps aren't monolithic. Exposure to countercyclical drivers like public infrastructure can generate outsized gains, while firms deeply embedded in the struggling domestic labour market face significant pressure. This dichotomy suggests that selective positioning, based on genuine macro exposure rather than market cap alone, may be key for navigating the post-rate-hike environment.

SME Funding Constraints and Strategic Rebalancing

UK small businesses faced a sharp funding squeeze in 2023. Bank lending to SMEs fell 12% in real terms, reaching £185bn. Simultaneously, equity raised collapsed 53% year-on-year to just £6.5bn through Q1-Q3. This dual contraction reflects tighter credit conditions and persistent economic uncertainty affecting financing options.

Regional disparities worsened significantly. London dominated equity financing, securing 46% of deals and 58% of total investment. Meanwhile, rural and deprived areas experienced acute shortages, constraining growth potential outside major urban centers. These imbalances persist despite recent initiatives targeting female and ethnic minority businesses, which still receive proportionally less finance.

The situation pressures SMEs to rebalance strategies. Asset finance showed relative resilience, growing 26% in real terms since 2014. However, rising interest rates and tighter lending standards are increasing default risks, forcing businesses to prioritize capital efficiency. The structural funding gaps highlight a disconnect between investment needs and available capital allocation.

This environment makes strategic discipline essential. Businesses must focus on core operations and cash flow management, as external financing becomes scarcer and more expensive. The persistent regional divides further complicate expansion plans for firms outside London's orbit. While asset finance provides some relief, the overall tightening signals a need for careful financial stewardship and potential operational restructuring.