La subida del 14,38% en FTAI Aviation indica la recuperación alcista a pesar de los niveles clave de soporte y resistencia

Candlestick Theory
FTAI Aviation’s recent 14.38% surge suggests a strong bullish reversal pattern, potentially a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing, given the sharp upward move from a prior consolidation phase. Key support levels can be identified at the recent troughs of ~$170.60 (Dec 29 close) and ~$162.55 (Dec 16 low), while resistance aligns with the Dec 30 high of $197.68 and the prior peak of $199.88. A breakdown below $170.60 could trigger a retest of the psychological $160 level, whereas a sustained close above $197.68 may indicate a continuation of the uptrend.

Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 50-day MA (~$175–$180) crossing above the 200-day MA (~$150–$160), signaling a bullish Golden Cross. The 100-day MA (~$165–$170) acts as a dynamic support, currently being tested by the price action. A break above the 50-day MA would strengthen the case for a multi-month uptrend, while a failure to hold above the 100-day MA could invite a pullback toward the 200-day line.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has expanded positively, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator shows the stochastic %K (~90) nearing overbought territory, while %D (~75) lags slightly, suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally. Divergence between the two lines may indicate a short-term pullback, though a sustained close above $190 could delay bearish signals.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has spiked, with the price touching the upper Bollinger Band (~$199.88) on Dec 30, a rare occurrence after a period of band contraction in late November–December. The narrow band phase (Dec 15–Dec 29) implied a pre-breakout consolidation, now resolved by the sharp rally. If volatility subsides, the price may trade within a narrower range between the 20-day SMA (~$185) and the lower band (~$170).
Volume-Price Relationship
The Dec 30 session saw a surge in volume (3.23M shares), validating the breakout. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions (e.g., 368K on Dec 29), which may signal weakening conviction in the rally. A return to high-volume buying above $190 would strengthen the case for a sustained uptrend, while declining volume on new highs could foreshadow a correction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI has spiked to ~75–80, entering overbought territory, suggesting a high probability of short-term profit-taking. However, historical context shows RSI frequently exceeded 70 during the October–December rally, with pullbacks often resuming higher. A close below 50 would signal a deeper correction, but given the bullish MACD and moving average alignment, this may act as a buying opportunity.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the October–December rally (high: $199.88, low: $152.08) include 61.8% at ~$180 and 50% at ~$175. The current price near $197.68 is above the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential retest of the 61.8%–78.6% range before resuming higher. A breakdown below $175 would target the 38.2% level at ~$165.
Conclusion
Confluence between the bullish Golden Cross, expanding MACD, and overbought RSI highlights a high-probability continuation scenario if the price holds above $170.60. Divergences between stochastic momentum and price suggest caution for short-term traders, though the broader trend remains intact. A break above $199.88 could extend the rally to $210–$220, while a failure to hold key support levels may invite a test of $160–$150.