Configuración comercial de viernes: Informe sobre empleos y decisiones relativas a las tarifas aduaneras – Niveles clave y riesgo/recompensa

Markets are holding their breath for two high-stakes events that will set the tone for the week. U.S. futures are essentially flat, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hovering around par. This calm before the storm reflects the market's focus on Friday's twin catalysts: the December nonfarm payrolls report and the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs.

The first test is the jobs data. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a modest gain of about 70,000 jobs, a figure that would signal a still-tight labor market. This report is critical for the Federal Reserve, with its next interest rate decision less than three weeks away. A print significantly above or below that expectation could force a re-evaluation of the central bank's policy path, directly impacting bond yields and equity valuations.

The second catalyst carries even broader implications. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. This decision is a game-changer for global trade and could force a major restructuring of supply chains. Its outcome will also influence the Fed's outlook, as trade policy directly affects inflation pressures. The high-stakes nature of this ruling is why markets are waiting with bated breath.

In the meantime, the market is already rotating out of its recent leaders. In Thursday's session, semiconductor and AI-linked stocks led the declines, with Nvidia falling 2.2% and Micron Technology dropping 3.7%. This shift away from high-growth tech into sectors like defense, which rallied on a call for a massive military budget, shows traders are positioning for potential volatility and a change in leadership. The setup is clear: the jobs report and the tariff ruling will determine whether this rotation accelerates or reverses.

Sector Rotation and Tactical Positioning

The market's immediate reaction to the twin catalysts is a clear rotation in leadership. Traders are moving capital away from the recent winners and into sectors they see as offering shelter or a direct policy bet. This shift is tactical, driven by the need to position for volatility and a potential change in the economic narrative.

The most dramatic move was into defense stocks. Following President Trump's call for a $1.5 trillion US military budget for 2027, the sector rallied sharply. The gains were led by Kratos Defense, which jumped 13.8%, with Lockheed Martin up 4.4%. This isn't just a pop; it's a direct play on government spending, a theme that could gain traction regardless of the Fed's next move. The rally shows investors are seeking sectors less sensitive to interest rate policy and more tied to political and budgetary decisions.

Support also emerged in energy. As crude oil prices rebounded more than 4%, Exxon Mobil gained 3.7% and Chevron rose 2.6%. This move is a classic cyclical trade, betting on a stabilization in commodity prices and the associated boost to energy earnings. It complements the defense bet, offering another avenue for capital that is not exposed to the AI infrastructure narrative.

This rotation stands in stark contrast to the steep declines in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks. Names like Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Broadcom all fell more than 2% on Thursday. The sell-off reflects a combination of profit-taking after last year's outsized gains and growing scrutiny over the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures. By rotating out of these high-growth, Fed-sensitive areas, traders are effectively reducing their exposure to the very policy uncertainty that the jobs report and tariff ruling are meant to resolve.

The bottom line is a market seeking shelter. The rally in defense and energy is a tactical positioning for a potential policy-driven or cyclical shift, while the flight from tech is a risk-off move ahead of high-stakes news. This rotation creates a clear setup: the direction of the jobs report and the tariff ruling will determine whether these new leaders hold their ground or if the market's focus snaps back to the growth narrative.

Scenarios and Intraday Risk/Reward Setup

The twin catalysts create two distinct, high-impact scenarios that will define the day's price action. Traders need a clear framework to navigate the volatility ahead.

The first scenario hinges on the jobs report. A print significantly above the consensus of about 70,000 jobs would reinforce the narrative of a resilient labor market. This would likely support the Federal Reserve's current pause in rate hikes, keeping borrowing costs low and providing a tailwind for risk assets. In this outcome, the rotation into defense and energy could accelerate, with the broader market finding support near recent levels. The key level to watch for confirmation is the S&P 500's recent high of 6929 points. A decisive break above that mark would signal strong conviction and could trigger a rally across sectors.

The second, more disruptive scenario involves the Supreme Court ruling. If the justices rule against the legality of the tariffs, it would create immediate volatility, particularly for exporters and companies with global supply chains. The decision would force a major re-evaluation of trade policy, potentially spurring a flight to safety and pressuring cyclical stocks. This scenario would likely amplify the market's existing rotation, but in a more chaotic manner. The Nasdaq's recent decline from its peak serves as a critical technical level here; a break below that trendline would confirm a broader risk-off shift.

The tactical setup is one of binary outcomes. For traders, the risk/reward depends on positioning for these extremes. The calm before the storm, with futures flat, suggests the market is pricing in a near-even chance of each scenario. The critical levels are clear: watch the S&P 500's 6929 high for bullish confirmation and the Nasdaq's recent peak for signs of a reversal. The outcome of Friday's news will determine which path the market takes, making these levels the focal points for intraday action.