Freeport-McMoRan Gets Upgrade to Overweight with $48 Price Target

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) received an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley with a price target of $48, projecting a potential upside of 23%. Analysts predict an average price target of $51.08, with expectations ranging from $60.04 to $27.32. The GF Value model estimates an 18.15% upside from the current price.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has received an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which has raised its rating to Overweight with a price target of $48. This represents a potential upside of 23% from the current trading price of $41.87. The average analyst price target for FCX is $51.08, with expectations ranging from $60.04 to $27.32. The GF Value model estimates an 18.15% upside from the current price.

Morgan Stanley's upgrade is based on the belief that the recent price reaction in Freeport-McMoRan shares has been excessive, despite adjusting estimates to account for U.S. Section 232 tariffs not extending to copper cathodes. The investment bank notes that the company will still benefit from 50% tariffs on a majority of its U.S. volumes, providing significant support for its operations.

The firm also highlights that Freeport-McMoRan continues to benefit from elevated gold prices, which are helping to reduce the company’s unit net cash costs and improve overall profitability. Morgan Stanley’s new price target of $48 per share represents approximately 20% upside potential from current levels, with the target based on mid-2026 projections.

In other recent news, Freeport-McMoRan reported impressive financial results for the second quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst forecasts. The company achieved earnings per share of $0.54, which was a 20% surprise over the expected $0.45. Revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $7.58 billion compared to the anticipated $7.19 billion. Despite these strong results, the company faced challenges as President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, affecting products like pipes, wires, and electrical components.

BMO Capital has also trimmed its target for Freeport-McMoRan to $54 from $55 while maintaining its Outperform rating. The company delivered a "well-executed quarter" despite a cut to its 2025 gold production forecast. BMO analyst Katja Jancic emphasized that US operations remain poised to benefit from cash flow tailwinds and that the stock appears attractively valued at 6 times estimated 2026 EBITDA.

Freeport-McMoRan's recent financial success is bolstered by the U.S. copper tariffs, which are expected to benefit the company's operations. Morgan Stanley, in upgrading the stock to Overweight, noted that the tariffs would allow Freeport-McMoRan to raise prices for copper rod, which accounts for a significant portion of its North American sales [1, 2].

Despite the recent adjustments, BMO Capital maintains a positive outlook on Freeport-McMoRan, citing the company's strong operational performance and attractive valuation. The stock's current valuation at 6 times estimated 2026 EBITDA suggests that investors may find the stock undervalued relative to its fundamentals.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/morgan-stanley-upgrades-freeportmcmoran-stock-to-overweight-despite-price-target-cut-93CH-4181885
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/freeport-mcmoran-bmo-long-term-view-lowers-q2-target-slightly-2508/