Freeport McMoRan Surges 6.87% on Heavy Volume Signaling Bullish Momentum

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) closed at $44.47 on June 26, 2025, registering a notable 6.87% single-day gain on elevated volume of 18.2 million shares. This surge represents the strongest daily advance in over two months, potentially signaling renewed bullish momentum. The following technical analysis evaluates key indicators across the specified framework, highlighting significant confluences and divergences while emphasizing probabilistic market interpretations.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a bullish reversal pattern emerging near the $40.00 support zone established in late May. The June 26 session formed a long-bodied white candle closing near its high ($44.47 vs. high of $44.90), decisively breaking above the immediate resistance at $43.40. This follows a hammer pattern on June 24 (low: $40.80, close: $42.01) and a doji-like indecision candle on June 25, collectively suggesting accumulation. Key resistance now converges near the psychological $45.00 level, which aligns with the March 2025 swing high, while support holds at $43.40 (June 26 low) and $41.60 (June 25 low).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages exhibit a bullish alignment, confirming an established uptrend. Current price ($44.47) trades meaningfully above all three averages, with the 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA in late May—a classic "golden cross" signal. The ascending slope of the 50-day MA ($41.20 approximate) reinforces short-term momentum, while the 200-day MA ($38.50 approximate) maintains an upward trajectory. This configuration suggests sustained bullish bias, though a close below the 50-day MA would warrant caution.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows broadening positive bars following a bullish crossover in early June, indicating accelerating upward momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator presents a mixed signal: The %K line (88) and %D line (82) entered overbought territory (>80) on June 26, yet the rising J-line (100) implies persistent buying pressure. While this KDJ overbought condition suggests potential near-term consolidation, the MACD’s strengthening divergence supports the continuation of the broader uptrend. No bearish divergence is observed between price and momentum oscillators.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply on June 26 (+15% vs. prior session), reflecting a volatility breakout as price challenged the upper band ($44.90). This expansion after a period of bandwidth contraction (June 18-24) typically precedes sustained directional moves. Closing near the upper band indicates strong upside momentum, with the middle band ($42.00 approximate) now acting as dynamic support. The breakout above the prior session’s tight trading range (June 25 range: $41.19–$41.96) further validates the bullish volatility surge.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis reveals constructive confirmation of the bullish breakout. June 26’s volume (18.2M shares) doubled the 20-day average and marked the highest reading since April 24, validating buyer conviction. Notably, volume on down days (e.g., June 20: 14.0M, June 25: 7.1M) consistently underperformed bullish sessions, indicating limited distribution. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for June sits at $42.30, now serving as support, while the volume climax during April’s base formation ($29–$35 zone) establishes a long-term support floor.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (62) resides in neutral territory after rebounding from near-oversold levels (42) in late May. Current readings show no divergence with price action, though proximity to the overbought threshold (70) warrants monitoring. Historically, FCX has sustained RSI levels above 60 during strong uptrends (e.g., March 2025). The absence of an overbought signal despite the 6.87% surge suggests residual buying capacity, though traders should note RSI’s lagging nature during high-volatility events.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the primary downtrend from the September 2024 high ($52.61) to the April 2025 low ($28.48) reveals significant confluences. The June 26 close ($44.47) surpassed the 38.2% retracement level ($43.39), turning this into support. The next resistance aligns with the 23.6% level ($46.92), which converges with the March 2025 peak. Notably, the 61.8% retracement ($37.71) underpinned the May 2025 reversal, highlighting its relevance as major support. This Fibonacci structure suggests a measured upside toward $46.92–$47.00.
Confluence is observed across the volume-supported breakout, moving average alignment, MACD acceleration, and Fibonacci level clearance, collectively suggesting bullish dominance with a projected near-term target of $46.90–$47.00. Primary risks include profit-taking near the $45.00 psychological barrier and KDJ overbought readings, though divergences remain absent. Should FCX hold above $43.40, the technical structure favors continuation, with a breach below $41.60 signaling potential trend exhaustion.